6/16/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: 
LULU
Comment at low $240s
- see comment from 6/6/25 about why $260 post EPS was "interesting" but not obvious to own ST
- now we're only down a modest ~10% from there, so not much has really changed, except discretionary stocks have further drained. so this is not LULU specific per se, but sector/ factor beta
- when you take LT leases out of the EV of ~29.3 bn as of writing, or about 1.5 bn = you get ~27.8 bn. when you consider PF capex is about 500 mm (ex growth)... you end up with FCF this year of ~1.5 bn. so 1.5/ 27.8 = 5.4%.
- in the current macro where consumer has yet to really trough, or where we get "all clear cut to rates" (which is not my base case - if anything i think rates could stay sticky or even head higher in the ST), this means yield for this type of name post the last EPS comms might have to approach 6-7% all else equal
- the mid teens PE of ~16x is "buy" (again referencing the last note), but in this sort of macro/ environment, 13...14...15x is also reasonable until the mkt can underwrite exactly where the "trough" will be and start to put a more comfortable '26 estimate on the stock (we're not there).
- right now there are only three discretionary names i like in this order:
ANF > 
YETI > $lulu. i only own ANF b/c the FCF yield is nearly 15% on my est. and growth/ mgns also decent/ last EPS was "good". I trade around YETI (don't currently own), and i see reason LULU could get a ST bid here all else equal, so i'm playing a bit of a ST bounce here in the $240 region with some slight ITM option exposure for july.
- however, i'm aware that the low is probably not in
- and i've also seen this stock make nice mean reverting moves before it needs to find a lower level especially b/c the brand is great, the growth is not over... and eventually this will be a top tier discretionary name to own and the mkt is currently pricing it as such, anyway, at mid teens EPS when the rest of the B tier stuff is already single digits. *there's a reason for that*.
- food for thought.
V
LULUComment at low $240s
- see comment from 6/6/25 about why $260 post EPS was "interesting" but not obvious to own ST
- now we're only down a modest ~10% from there, so not much has really changed, except discretionary stocks have further drained. so this is not LULU specific per se, but sector/ factor beta
- when you take LT leases out of the EV of ~29.3 bn as of writing, or about 1.5 bn = you get ~27.8 bn. when you consider PF capex is about 500 mm (ex growth)... you end up with FCF this year of ~1.5 bn. so 1.5/ 27.8 = 5.4%.
- in the current macro where consumer has yet to really trough, or where we get "all clear cut to rates" (which is not my base case - if anything i think rates could stay sticky or even head higher in the ST), this means yield for this type of name post the last EPS comms might have to approach 6-7% all else equal
- the mid teens PE of ~16x is "buy" (again referencing the last note), but in this sort of macro/ environment, 13...14...15x is also reasonable until the mkt can underwrite exactly where the "trough" will be and start to put a more comfortable '26 estimate on the stock (we're not there).
- right now there are only three discretionary names i like in this order:
ANF > YETI > $lulu. i only own ANF b/c the FCF yield is nearly 15% on my est. and growth/ mgns also decent/ last EPS was "good". I trade around YETI (don't currently own), and i see reason LULU could get a ST bid here all else equal, so i'm playing a bit of a ST bounce here in the $240 region with some slight ITM option exposure for july.- however, i'm aware that the low is probably not in
- and i've also seen this stock make nice mean reverting moves before it needs to find a lower level especially b/c the brand is great, the growth is not over... and eventually this will be a top tier discretionary name to own and the mkt is currently pricing it as such, anyway, at mid teens EPS when the rest of the B tier stuff is already single digits. *there's a reason for that*.
- food for thought.
V
免責聲明
這些資訊和出版物並不意味著也不構成TradingView提供或認可的金融、投資、交易或其他類型的意見或建議。請在使用條款閱讀更多資訊。