Optimism Seasonality Trade 150-200x

2023年1月2日

Introduction
It seems like every year some crypto absolutely explode upwards the first 10 days or so of the year and many of them get slapped back to the ground and even end up lower than their starting points while others just seem to continually moon. Those cryptos grab a lot of attention for the whole market and they end up being one of the momentum trades for the first half of the year. As they cool off other momentum trades pick up. For some comparison I am going to compare the current state of Optimism to Matic in 2021 and then compare the bull runs of Matic to Solana.

Similarities Between OP and Matic at the New Year

• Price really tight on multi month consolidation triangles.
  
• Accordingly, price tight to 20 period SMA
  
• The volatility stop suggest price is going to break to the upside
  
• Log MACD and Histogram action really tight around zero
  
• Most importantly, both were new coins

All of these suggest that a big move is coming. I have some fib-based targets I am looking at and have already set take profits. When the Log MACD starts to show some bearish divergence, I may be closing my trade manually because my target isn't getting reached. Bearish divergence on the Log MACD on the 3-day interval is pretty powerful


And, less you think I am crazy, here is the Matic fib draw. And I think the current OP formation is stronger than the Matic formation was.


Comparing Matic & Solana Last Bull Run
Two of the major players last bull run were Matic and Solana. Both had very big January moves (like I hope OP to have) but they behaved differently on the way up. Matic was more bullish out of the gates and went 125x very quickly over the course of just 5 months. During that same time Solana only went 40x. Now, most the times the trend is your friend until the end so you would have hoped MATIC would have had even more upside but no. It double topped.

Then the relatively humble Solana went bonkers and had a total move of 200x and was able to set a higher high when MATIC was double topping. My target for OP is roughly a 170-185x from here which puts it closer for the 9 month move and not the 5 month move. If that is the case, then is it is more likely there will be a month-month consolidation like Solana had and then the majority of the move will happen.



Of course, if my OP position is up 125x in a matter of 5-6 months I will be more than happy to find something else to rotate into, even if it doesn't hit my 180x target

Closing thoughts
There are very view going I see poised like I see OP. OP is different because it went sideways while many coins were shedding value. The top runners of 2021 are on my watch list, not my trade list. I think they still have 9-18 months to consolidate from their runs. Of course, the 2021 top runners are not new coins anymore.

2023年1月13日

註釋

I literally don't think I have ever had a better entry into a long term trade as this one. Quite pleased. I have one entry that was lower down for x5 but once I saw the sign of strength I went x10

2023年2月16日

註釋

After our first major pause and pull back on the way up we are in the process of flipping the daily Parabolic Sar. I have added to my position and re-upped my margin with quite a tight stop. Lets see how this plays out.

2023年2月23日

註釋

Things have gone quite well over the last 24-48 hours for OP. The notations on the image below are quite bullish and paint a beautiful picture of future gains over the next 6 weeks.



It is very likely that OP takes out its previous all time high set a couple of weeks ago and does a fib extension. Hitting the 1.618 target at $16 or the 2.0 target at $27 in march or April is very doable. Of course, there are probably going to be multiple 30-50% corrections on the way to target or at target so it is going to be stressful for people that want to double up on margin without a very solid strategy.


I doubled up myself yesterday at 2.58 and have a profitable stop loss 2.76. I moved it up aggressively and will be closing out the margin portion of my position at that level should my rising support trendline get broken. There is a micro falling wedge that I hope set a local low.

2023年3月4日

註釋

The last several days have made me reconsider my draw on Optimism. I am sold my position and will look to fill my bags lower down. This is beginning to look a lot like a rising wedge that will pop to the upside like KDA did a couple of years ago.

2023年4月15日

註釋

This last days price action has lead me to putting some margin on OP. I do expect some interactions with the purple trendline that I suspect will be broken. I hope to have a profitable stop loss in a couple of days wile this works itself out.

Should the purple trendline not be broken I will still be looking to buy the red trendlline. As far as my trades go, this is my smallest margin trade. Just enough to add some spice to life.

2023年4月15日

註釋

While I am at it, here is the OPBTC chart. Very positive. I split the MACD and histogram into two differnt indicators to show both have hidden bullish divergence. OPBTC might pop out the top of this wedge for a massive bull market.

2023年4月23日

註釋

Stopped out of my margin position. I will continue to hold my non-margin position.

2023年5月9日

註釋

I am still holding my non-margin position despite a pretty serious pull back. I am looking for OP to strengthen and show a multi-day reversal pattern here before I put on some more margin. A strengthening price action will have price beat the RSI resistance as hit has before and clear up some technical resistance on the indicator.

And as the image shows, I want to see the MACD-AS show some more strength and some green histogram bars. With enough confluence I should be able to grab an influence. No margin on as of yet.



I will also be keeping an eye on my ADX and SAR chart to get even more confluence. Ideally we will be able to see some divergence on the DI- that will help identify an exhausting downtrend.

2023年5月31日

註釋

It appears this wedge is breaking down. I have been out of my margin position for a while now and I am expecting to hold non-margin positions for the whole way down. Target is now at the bottom of the wedge. There is a chance we stall around $0.85 and I can look for an ascending triangle set up.

2023年6月11日

註釋

OP has taken out my leveraged buy entry. I closed the long somewhere around 2.7 or so (stopped out after trying to re-up) and used the value in my cross margin account to short Matic. My account has moved up in value in USD terms but if I was merely holding I would be furious at myself right now.

This is one reason why when people ask me to help them trade I decline. I would have been up even more money if I had sold my OP totally rather than just closing out the margin portion of my position. I am up over the whole trade even though OP went below my entry because I can manage my cross-margin account well enough. Most people cannot. And it can be hell stressful even when it is working.