2024-05-15 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
US CPI came in line and it was obvious that we would melt then, since yesterday PPI was hot and we melted anyway. Now we get a deep-pullback the last weeks after new ath’s and now we got the retest or new ath’s. From a technical point markets are now absolutely free to do whatever they want. Right now the momentum is clearly bullish but since everyone and their dog is long and Friday is OPEX, I would not be too sure of more parabolic upward moves. If we continue up, I happily join the bulls as I did today.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: 10 consecutive bull bars on the daily chart. Talking about parabolic buy climaxes… It would be funny, if we just straight off sell down from here on. Overbought does not even come close to describing this but this can go on much longer than I could ever think is possible, so best to do is trend following.
current market cycle: trading range - same as dax. If we break strongly above 5340, continuation of the bull trend for probably much higher prices (5500/5600).
key levels: 5000 - 5337
bull case: Bulls want this breakout out of the wedge to succeed and continue the melt-up for 5400/5500. If bears fail to quickly trade back below the 1h 20ema, bulls have no reason to sell out of their longs. Besides that, not much technical stuff to talk about. Since yesterday’s PPI spike, we had consecutive buy climaxes and pull-backs are shallow. Invalid below 5290.
bear case: Market is the definition of overbought, yet here we are. Bears need to start doing anything to get some bulls to take profits. As for now, this is just bullish and bullish only but do you really want to buy the ath for new longs? Momentum scalps, sure but besides that, I would rather wait. Bears need to break below 5300 and retest today’s open. Then we wait for the bulls to react and based on that we can talk about new lower prices. Invalid above 5345
short term: Neutral - trend is clearly up but I rather wait for now and see what the market does up here when OPEX is around the corner.
medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months.
trade of the day: The CPI spike got a pull-back to exactly the 50% retracement. Textbook buy at the 5m 20ema.
overall market comment
US CPI came in line and it was obvious that we would melt then, since yesterday PPI was hot and we melted anyway. Now we get a deep-pullback the last weeks after new ath’s and now we got the retest or new ath’s. From a technical point markets are now absolutely free to do whatever they want. Right now the momentum is clearly bullish but since everyone and their dog is long and Friday is OPEX, I would not be too sure of more parabolic upward moves. If we continue up, I happily join the bulls as I did today.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: 10 consecutive bull bars on the daily chart. Talking about parabolic buy climaxes… It would be funny, if we just straight off sell down from here on. Overbought does not even come close to describing this but this can go on much longer than I could ever think is possible, so best to do is trend following.
current market cycle: trading range - same as dax. If we break strongly above 5340, continuation of the bull trend for probably much higher prices (5500/5600).
key levels: 5000 - 5337
bull case: Bulls want this breakout out of the wedge to succeed and continue the melt-up for 5400/5500. If bears fail to quickly trade back below the 1h 20ema, bulls have no reason to sell out of their longs. Besides that, not much technical stuff to talk about. Since yesterday’s PPI spike, we had consecutive buy climaxes and pull-backs are shallow. Invalid below 5290.
bear case: Market is the definition of overbought, yet here we are. Bears need to start doing anything to get some bulls to take profits. As for now, this is just bullish and bullish only but do you really want to buy the ath for new longs? Momentum scalps, sure but besides that, I would rather wait. Bears need to break below 5300 and retest today’s open. Then we wait for the bulls to react and based on that we can talk about new lower prices. Invalid above 5345
short term: Neutral - trend is clearly up but I rather wait for now and see what the market does up here when OPEX is around the corner.
medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months.
trade of the day: The CPI spike got a pull-back to exactly the 50% retracement. Textbook buy at the 5m 20ema.
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