MSFT’s Momentum Weakening: Where’re the defending levels?

4月18日

Trend
- On the weekly chart: Still within the large uptrend channel since January 2023.
- On the daily chart: The minor uptrend channel since October 2023 was broken with moderate volume.
- Although the long-term uptrend remains intact, the short-term momentum may be pausing.



100% Symmetrical Projection: Uptrend “N” Patterns
- There are two price projection models, both leading to the same ultimate target price of $457.

• The large purple N, starting from January 2023.
  
• The small orange N, starting from October 2023.
  

- Symmetry break: If the price drops below the prior low at $400, the symmetry (the pullback) is violated. Following that, with increased uncertainties, anticipating the price action will become challenging.
- If the momentum is strong, we could expect a clear price movement toward the target price once it surpasses the symmetrical retracement box at $421. However, the price is currently hovering around $421, indicating weakening momentum.



N Pattern’s Target Price & Fibonacci Price Cluster
- Both N patterns are an A+ setup.

• Retrace 0.382 of the prior swing and then continue to rise.
  

- The level of 1.618 Fibonacci projection of the prior swing is the N’s target price.
- The level of 2.618 Fibonacci extension of the retracement is the N’s target price.
- The price treats the key Fibonacci levels as significant support and resistance levels along the way up.


Conclusion
- Currently, the momentum is weakening, though not yet exhausted.
- Once the price breaks below $400, the short-term momentum will be exhausted, potentially leading to a trend reversal.
- In the long term, for MSFT to sustain the uptrend, the price should remain within the large uptrend channel and above the price level of $367.


**Not Financial Advice**
The information contained in this article is not intended as, and should not be understood as financial advice. You should take independent financial advice from a professional who is aware of the facts and circumstances of your individual situation.