NAS100 – up 8 straight days & the chase is heating up

2023年11月7日

We see the NAS100 up for 8 straight days, with price breaking the July downtrend and testing the 12 Oct swing high – a record closing high for Microsoft clearly helping. Naturally, we don’t see the NAS100 up for 8 days in a row too frequently, and since 2010 we’ve seen this run of form 32 times. It can be quite compelling to short a market having had such a stretch, but running the backtest I find if I bought the NAS100 on the 8th up day, 53% of the time I would rally for a 9th – in fact, five days later the index would be higher 65% of the time. Granted, in many of those years the US equity markets were in a bull market and pullbacks were buying opportunities, but it still suggests momentum favours the brave. Let’s not forget the NAS100 futures haven’t closed lower in the month of November since 2011 – although a 6.4% rally MTD is punchy.