NASDAQ-100 Head & Shoulders Breakdown?

I've been tracking a potential head and shoulders pattern on the NASDAQ-100, with a neckline at 17,720. If the pattern completes and breaks down convincingly, the measured move projects a target near 13,200 — a significant potential drop.

While technical patterns aren’t guarantees, they often coincide with underlying fundamentals. In this case, there are several macroeconomic headwinds that could catalyze such a decline:

Sticky Inflation and Interest Rate Uncertainty: Despite some progress, inflation remains above the Fed’s target. A “higher for longer” rate environment continues to pressure equity valuations, especially in tech-heavy indexes like the NASDAQ-100.

Weakening Consumer and Corporate Spending: Retail sales and corporate earnings revisions have shown signs of fatigue, suggesting slowing momentum in key economic drivers.

Global Tensions and Supply Chain Risks: Ongoing geopolitical instability, including issues in the Middle East and renewed U.S.–China trade rhetoric, could reignite volatility and affect global growth assumptions.

Overvaluation and Narrow Market Breadth: A small group of mega-cap tech names have driven much of the recent rally, leaving the broader market vulnerable if leadership falters.

With technical and fundamental factors aligning, this setup is worth watching closely. A confirmed break below the neckline could be more than just a chart pattern—it may reflect a broader shift in sentiment.