On the NQ around 21,638, I’d estimate roughly:
Rally up through 22,248 first ~60%
Slide down through 21,024 first ~40%
Why?
Up-trend bias: Since the April low (≈16,000), the market has been in a strong rally, clearing multiple interim highs.
Resistance vs. support: 22,248 has capped rallies twice (Jan & Feb), so a break would be bullish but not guaranteed. Meanwhile 21,024 flipped to support in late May.
Momentum: The recent pullback from 22,000 was shallow, and daily MACD/RSI remain in bullish territory, suggesting a higher chance to retest the upper line before failing.
Rally up through 22,248 first ~60%
Slide down through 21,024 first ~40%
Why?
Up-trend bias: Since the April low (≈16,000), the market has been in a strong rally, clearing multiple interim highs.
Resistance vs. support: 22,248 has capped rallies twice (Jan & Feb), so a break would be bullish but not guaranteed. Meanwhile 21,024 flipped to support in late May.
Momentum: The recent pullback from 22,000 was shallow, and daily MACD/RSI remain in bullish territory, suggesting a higher chance to retest the upper line before failing.
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