NATGAS short idea with targets: Fade the Natural Gas Spike

I do NOT trade this commodity, but saw the spike and just had to check it out.

I realize that seasonality implies demand this time of year, but that was a 40% + spike in a few days.
So of course it came back down quickly, and is starting to bounce.
But my Fib analysis points to one more leg down, thus my short Ideas.
And standard Elliot Wave theory implies an ABC correction, and thus my plot.

Red zones to watch for signs of rejection for entry short.
Or, if a Red zone is surpassed and then price falls back below, watch for entry then.

Green zones are take profit targets.
I like to use trailing stops, an then take 1/2 or 3/4 profits on first target, and let the rest ride

評論:

Price fell to the first possible support zone

A close up (5 min) shows the relevance of the 3.618 Fib (blue line)

I think it will break below, but am noting because this Fib will probably be resistance on the way up now.

評論:

The 3.618 mentioned broke (blue line in pic above and below). Drawing new fib extensions on the this micro leg down, looks like it might go a little lower to complete this particular 12345 impulse down

(yeah I know, 1 min chart, just noise. But when the fibs line up, it is no longer noise to me.

評論:

London Open caused a spike. That may have been a micro wave 4 still, or that may have been end of this down wave. If it has one more dip, it might look like this

評論:

Moving down nicely. But I think it is about to bounce a bit, perhaps an ABC correction coming after this apparent 12345 ending

評論:

Hmm, that could well have been the end of this impulse down. The 9.618 extension of the 'micro' impulse is often the end of the ripples created by such an impulse.

評論:

NATGAS ''might'' pullback to the cructial 3.618 fib if this ABC shows some strength, which I am thinking it will