Weather Factors and Storage Levels Across the Atlantic

NATURALGAS NATURALGAS1! NG1! NATGAS
Current prices vs. price spread 10 days before expiry by month since 2010. The 2025 summer futures contracts are still trading above the median expiration price, but remain within the interquartile range. Winter 2026 contracts declined relative to the previous week but remain higher than 2025, similar dynamics are observed in 2027. The market is slowly but still starting to stabilize.
Current Forward curve compared to 2020—2024. A strong upward bias in the curve remains in 2025 despite the price decline last week. The shape of the curve after 2027 remains more stable, and the decrease in outright contract prices has not altered it. It stays within a price range comparable to the corresponding 2023-2024 curves for the same period of the year.

Current gas inventories and next week's forecast compared to 2019—2024. For the 26th week (June 21-27), we anticipate a 45 BCF increase in storage. The level of filling will be above the median for the previous 5 years. Despite falling pumping rates, if the current supply and demand situation persists, the 2024 peak level is possible. The weather in the 2H of summer remains a constraint.

Weekly HDD+CDD totals from current NOAA data and forecast for the next two weeks compared to 1994—2024. HDD+CDD values in the first half of June were below the median. Week 27 (June 30—July 6) is expected to remain comparatively hot, relative to the last 30 years. The forecast values for week 28 are on the upper quantile.

Weekly cumulative supply/demand difference vs. 2014—2024. If we take a look by region, we can see forecast values for the current and following week above average in almost all regions.

Change in monthly weather averages for 10 years from 1990 to 2024. Over the past 30 years, July has become hotter by 20 HDD+CDD units.

Weekly cumulative supply/demand difference compared to 2014-2024. The April-June 2025 supply/demand balance is well below the 10-year median due to low temperatures in the 1H of summer. The last two weeks have seen a trend reversal towards a higher balance above the historical median. At the same time, due to production growth over the last week, we are monitoring whether the increased demand from consumption will be offset by production growth.

Percentage change in Spot and near-term futures price relative to the beginning of the year for 2010-2025 by month. Across 15 years of carrying out statistics, July spot and near-term futures became traded with minimal price divergence.