MCX Natural Gas Analysis for medium term

10月8日

NATURALGAS1! looks bullish.

If we look at the daily chart carefully, we will see it retraced a lot and tested 125. Then it is mostly a range bound from 140 to 280.

Now this 280 level is also the 23% Fib retracement level.

Around this level the price hits already 5 times, after breakdown almost one and half year back. However this time it has created a W pattern. (or one can say a rounding bottom pattern).

After testing the 280 level in one week back, it retraces back a bit and most likely creating a nice Cup and Handle pattern.


Here are the expectations:

1. NG will test 280 level once more.
   
2. After that if it able to brakes it out 280, it will go to test the next resistance.
   
3. The next resistance is 400 level, positionally.
   

Also fundamentally, per the estimation of International Energy Agency (IEA) Global Gas Security Review, the Natural Gas demand is forecasted to rise by over 2.5 per cent in 2024, with similar growth expected in 2025. And it will be steady for next few years even with 1.5 degree Paris Weather convocation.

So stay alert. Above 280 sustains means it's a Buy on Dip on Natural Gas. Till then: Wait and Watch.