NAV regression channel convergence, 3:1

2019年4月21日

In my experience, charts have a strong attraction to moving towards multiple pattern convergence areas. Why? Because they're zones where a lot of emotion is triggered, aka lots of people will be involved. Market makers need to get you involved. That's why things drop just below your favorite area of the chart, get you emotionally triggered, and _then_ reverse. Or go just past your buy stop limit and then plummet. They go hunting for these trigger areas.

And I think the one circled is where NAV is headed next. Perhaps after some more accumulation / low side (sell for you, buy for them) triggering. Could be a week or even three before move happens. And I could be totally wrong, of course.

2019年4月25日

註釋

Ugh. Last holdout of hope is that this happened on a Monday, leaving an entire week for this bar to draw back up into the wedge and become a pinbar/"hammer" on the weekly. Guess we'll see what rest of week brings.

2019年4月30日

註釋

Welp we got trashed on the weekly. Flag breakdown. Happens. I still think in longer term we are at the bottom, but the move up did not happen in way I envisioned it.
"Sometimes you eat the bear, and sometimes..."

2019年5月3日

註釋

A move back to target area from here would mean _yet another_ exponential increase (100% gainz) for the MMs (and any littlefish that tag along for the ride). I guess we'll see what happens.