Nasdaq - 5 facts and 1 conclusion

2020年7月6日

So Nasdaq is quite overextended if you look at the weekly chart.

5 facts:

• RSI is flashing signals previously seen in 2000, 2008, 2019 and March 2020.
  
• MACD is only comparable to 2000.
  
• From the 2009 low around 1050, Nasdaq has 10x is price in 11 years.
  
• Price is close to the upper long term trend channel (around 11300 points).
  
• Price has broken the 2018 - 2020 channel.
  

Based on this I think we will get close to 11.000 points in the next few days and then drop to around 8500.

I would not however short nasdaq, as this is an incinerator of bears, just cash out if you are in while approaching 11.000 or buy volatility (VIX) if you want to hedge with a negative correlated asset (wouldn't buy puts either).

2020年7月13日

註釋

Big increase in VIX, Nasdaq capitulated today close to the top of the channel. Given that Q2 results will start soon and will be poor I think this is the start of the down trend.

Target 1: 9600
Target 2: 8600 (highest probability outcome based on current trend)
Target 3: 8000 (probable if volatility increases wildly)

2020年8月6日

註釋

nasdaq kept rising,I wouldnt go long or short at this point, it should have capitulated a while ago, it didnt so the question is, does fundamental and technical still apply to this index or will it go up forever no matter what?