NEAR the Bottom? - The Crash Ends Here

4月8日

Back in October 2023, NEAR embarked on an incredible bull run lasting 147 days, surging from a low of $0.971 to a high of $9.01—an astounding +828% gain. Following this euphoric phase, the market sentiment shifted dramatically. Over the subsequent 392 days, NEAR retraced to around $2, marking a -78% decline. Now, with the market at a critical juncture, the question remains: when does the madness of the crash end, and can we finally see a reversal?

Harmonic Patterns & Fibonacci Confluence

Chart Pattern Analysis: The XABCD Framework

Using the XABCD pattern tool, we identify the following key points:

• Point X: $0.971
  
• Point A: $9.01
  
• Point B: $3.076
  
• Point C: $8.244
  
• Point D: $1.978
  

Durations:

• X-A: 147 Days
  
• A-B: 143 Days
  
• B-C: 122 Days
  
• C-D: 126 Days
  

These durations show remarkable symmetry—with the up-move phases (X-A and A-B) nearly matching in time, and similarly for the correction phases (B-C and C-D). This time symmetry supports the presence of a harmonic structure, and the retracement levels help validate the potential for a reversal.

Fibonacci Implications

• Fib Retracement of XA: Point B is at 0.738
  
• Fib Retracement of AB: Point C sits at 0.871
  
• Fib Retracement of BC: Point D lands at 0.875
  
• Fib Extension of BC: Point D is at 1.212
  

While Point D’s retracement at 0.875 is slightly deeper than the classic 0.786 level expected for a Gartley Harmonic, it remains close enough to validate a harmonic correction, especially considering market noise. Additionally, the expansion of BC at 1.212 is close to the 1.27 range, lending further credence to this being a Gartley-type pattern.

Time Factor: Fibonacci Time Extensions & Exhaustion

• 147-day Bull Run: NEAR rose from $0.971 to $9.01 in 147 days.
  
• 392-day Bearish Correction: Since hitting $9.01, the price has retraced for 392 days.
  

Fibonacci Time Extensions:

• 1.618 multiplier: 147 × 1.618 ≈ 238 days. A Classic "golden ratio" reversal target. This period coincided with a +135% surge in November.
  
• 2.618 multiplier: 147 × 2.618 ≈ 385 days. High-probability exhaustion point. This is nearly equal to the current 392 days, suggesting that time-based exhaustion may be imminent.
  

The alignment of these time-based measures with the price retracement (approximately 87.5% retracement of the original move) signals a critical juncture where the bearish phase could soon be over.

Identifying the Support Zone & Long Opportunity

Based on harmonic and Fibonacci analyses, the confluence of key support levels points to a potential bottom:

• Harmonic Point D: Trading near $2.
  
• Monthly Level: $1.99 acts as a strong support benchmark.
  
• Fibonacci Retracement (0.886): at $1.887.
  

These levels create a long opportunity window between $1.99 and $1.887. This confluence offers a solid entry region for long positions.

Additionally, other confluence factors include:

• Fibonacci time extension at the 2.618 level (around 385 days) aligning with the current duration of the bearish phase.
  
• The symmetry of the XABCD pattern adds to the reliability of the support structure.
  

High-Probability Trade Setup

Long Entry:

• Entry Zone: Accumulate positions in the $1.99 to $1.887 range.
  
• Target: Aim for the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level of the bull run, approximately $5.00, which represents a potential +150% gain from current levels.
  
• Risk-to-Reward (R:R): With the setup targeting a substantial rebound, the risk-reward ratio is very attractive, particularly if entry is taken in the defined confluence zone.
  

Market Outlook:

• Current Sentiment: NEAR is in a significant downtrend, evidenced by a dramatic -78% retracement after an explosive bull run.
  
• Reversal Indicators: The harmonic pattern, Fibonacci retracements, and time exhaustion (392 days approaching the 2.618 extension) all point towards a possible bottom formation in the coming month, particularly during April.
  
• Potential Reversal: If NEAR holds within the $1.99 to $1.887 window, a reversal back towards $5.00 appears plausible, echoing the conditions seen at previous market cycle reversals.
  

Key Takeaways

• Historic Run & Severe Correction: NEAR surged over +828% in 147 days only to retrace -78% over the following 392 days.
  
• Harmonic Confluence: The XABCD pattern and Fibonacci levels create a compelling argument for a turnaround.
  
• Time & Price Alignment: Fibonacci time extension around 385 days combined with an 87.5% price retracement suggests market exhaustion.
  
• Solid Long Entry Zone: The support between $1.99 and $1.887 offers an attractive risk entry point with the potential to target a move back up to $5.00.
  

After decades in the trading arena, one thing is clear—the market often cycles through periods of euphoria and despair before turning a corner. NEAR's confluence of harmonic symmetry, Fibonacci retracement, and time-based exhaustion is almost too aligned to ignore. With a defined long entry window between $1.99 and $1.887, this might be the moment to consider a high-probability long trade. As always, manage your risk diligently and wait for clear confirmation.

Wrapping it up here, happy trading =)

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4月10日

交易進行

NEAR continues to show signs of strength after reaching the 0.886 Fibonacci retracement level at $1.887, marking a completion of a 5-wave corrective structure. Following this deep retracement, we’ve seen a notable spike in volume, suggesting that accumulation is underway, especially as price moved back toward a key previous high.

📌 Possible Inverse Head & Shoulders in Formation

What makes this setup even more compelling is the emerging inverse head and shoulders pattern:

Left Shoulder: Volume spike at $2, aligning with the monthly support level—this area served as the initial base of demand.
Head: Defined at the low of $1.821, aligning with the 0.886 Fib—a deep but common reversal zone in harmonic structures.
Right Shoulder: Currently in progress, with price consolidating near the $2 support zone.

🔍 Trade Setup Details

This structure opens up a high-probability long opportunity:

Entry Zone: Between $2.00 and $1.90, ideal for laddering entries while the right shoulder forms.
Stop Loss: Just below the head, at $1.82—logical invalidation level.
Neckline Resistance: $2.15 – A decisive break and retest of this level would validate the inverse H&S and confirm trend reversal.

🎯 Price Targets (Using Fibonacci Retracement from $3.093 to $1.821)

TP1 – $2.30: 0.382 Fibonacci retracement – aligns with the anchored VWAP from the $3.093 high, creating a significant resistance.
TP2 – $2.60: 0.618 retracement – a classic reversal target for corrective bounces and potential mid-term top.

📊 Risk-to-Reward Breakdown

Target 1 (TP1 – $2.30): R:R ≈ 2.5:1
Target 2 (TP2 – $2.60): R:R ≈ 4.5:1

These are excellent risk-reward ratios, especially considering the potential confirmation from the pattern's neckline breakout.

💡 Optional Trade Idea

More conservative traders may choose to wait for confirmation of the pattern by entering after a breakout and retest of the $2.15 neckline, aiming for the same upside targets with added confidence, albeit with a slightly different entry point and adjusted stop loss.

This setup checks all the boxes:

High-volume reaction from a fib-rich reversal zone.
Classic reversal pattern forming.
Clear support and resistance levels defined by price action and volume.
Optional entry strategies depending on risk tolerance and trading style.