A New Global Crisis Is Imminent - The Energy One

2021年9月28日

If Evergrande or a potential US default were not enough for you (by the way, yesterday the US Senate blocked a bill voted by the House of Representatives to extend the moratorium on the public debt ceiling until the end of 2022), then this week there is another reason to worry - the global energy crisis. Initially a local topic - the shortage of gas in Europe and the panic associated with this seems to be starting to become a global problem.

Recall that natural gas prices in Europe have already increased by almost 500% over the past few months. And most importantly, the deficit - no matter real or contrived - cannot be filled in any way. And then there are weak winds in the North Sea, the destruction of the power cable that supplied electricity to the UK, Hurricane Ida in the United States and production problems in the Gulf of Mexico. All this creates an atmosphere of genuine hysteria and the cries of “we will all die” are heard louder and louder, and not only from “freezing” Europe, but also from other parts of the planet.

In the UK, there is a natural panic at gas stations - there is no gasoline. The authorities are seriously considering the possibility of involving the army to solve the problem.

High prices for gas and electricity are forcing the closure of production.

At the start of this week, an unexpectedly loud cry of "Houston, we have problems" came from China. The desire of the Chinese authorities to clear the sky of smog before the Winter Olympics led to the fact that power outages began. It is already getting to a candlelight dinner, and some production has also been suspended, including factories that produce components for Apple and Tesla.

Analysts immediately rushed to lower their forecasts for China's GDP growth. In particular, Nomura cut its forecasts for China's GDP growth in the third and fourth quarters to 4.7% and 3.0%, respectively, from 5.1% and 4.4% earlier, and its annual forecast to 7.7% from 8. 2%.

At the same time, forecasts for energy prices, on the contrary, are increasing. Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for Brent oil by $ 10 at once and by the end of this year sees oil at $ 90 per barrel.

The situation is extremely hysterical. This means that prices deviate greatly from equilibrium. This is great in terms of making money. All these coals, gases and oils, of course, will pour in sooner or later, and then everyone will tell how stupid it was to buy the same gas at 76 euros per thousand MWh. But you need to understand that 76 euros in such an atmosphere as it is now, can easily turn into 100 or 150.