Technical Analysis: For Anticipation

2018年12月16日

The very basic foundation of technical analysis is 'anticipation'. The anticipation could be based upon historical facts or data. On the basis of assumptions drawn from the historical data we can predict the future course of action, or at least try to do so. The anticipation, however, could go wrong if data is not backtested. The anticipations based upon properly backtested data can result in to high probability opportunities. I would let the discussion open for the readers and get on to the Nifty charts.

The current Situation:
In previous posts I mentioned that the 9950-10050 zone may act as a strong support. Nifty bounced right from 10004.55 and has been trending higher since then. Last week it had a dip below the 10440 swing, but buyer managed to hold the pullback and pushed Nifty back to 10800. We all know how impulsive this rally was. Due to this impulsive nature I expect continuation, perhaps up to 11090 -- the fib. level which also retests the blue trend line. We may face reaction from those levels.
If we manage to continue higher this week, most of the bears trapped below 10440 will get stopped out above 10840 or 10950, resulting into high level of volatility.

Head and Shoulders Scenario:
At present this scenario is purely hypothetical. It suggests that we are in a right shoulder phase. The HnS will get a tentative confirmation below 10333 bear trap low and will be confirmed (as most of you must be knowing) below the neckline. In that case, I would expect a deeper bear market and will re-analyse for bear targets.
This scenario will have fewer chances to fructify if we see closings above 11100. In that case, I would call it the possible end of bear phase.

I hope it makes sense to most of the readers.
Do hit like for better posts in future.

Regards
Bravetotrade

2018年12月16日

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