ruebennase

NIFTY50---> It`s lonely at a top!

NSE:NIFTY   Nifty 50
306 4 8
Hello Traders,
NIFTY50 run it`s way today also by making a new ATH             at 10191.90 and fullfil the forecast by some points above my targetzone (10150 area)! This move was accompied by a strong a/d-Ratio at session start (2.97) but after that it was still lagging the rest of the day and closing at 1.77 ( EoD             ). Observing the chart we can see, that today´s move is either wave (( iii             )) of v of (i) or the top in wave (i) is in place.Today top was set by making some points above the 1.38 FibExt of wave i (blue)! I think we are in wave ((iv)) correction of lesser degree and after it is done we`re making another ATH             in the next coming trading hours. If this is the case and we finish this move up we`re ready for a pullback in a wave (ii) of higher degree with targets around the 9955-9880 area, which includes the wave (iv) of one lesser degree.
Closing the gap at 10098 will be a first sign that the advance is done and a reversal has started in a wave (ii) correction!
Analysing other Major Indexes shows that NIFTY200, SENSEX, BankNIFTY             etc did not confirm the new ATH             at NIFTY50. This is a multi non-confirmation, may often occuring at reversal points?! And USDINR             also shows weakness, meaning the decline at this pair isn`t done.
From an EW perspective it occur often, that fresh advances find a reversal point at the price level where a important high has occur, like it was the high in a wave b move at 10178.95 at Sept. 19! Also by observing the option chain for NIFTY50, we can monitor that there huge positions place at 10K-9700. Keep in mind, that the same structure was build just some hours before wave "b" has topped @ 10179.85 and a major reversal took place.
Have a great weekend
Questions and Comments are welcome!
Note!---> This analysis can be wrong. It is just in my view the one with the most probabiltity with the Data which are available to me and by my interpretation of the EW Theory. If you trade this it is done by your own risk and decision! Keep that in Mind!!!!
Data by NSEindia.com and moneycontrol.com!
Sub wave v over today ? Can we expect now correction for up move from 9687 to 10240 ?
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How about triangle consolidation continuing in wave b of IV. Wave c to start immediately post 10250 plus range for targets of below 9500. Any update on this possibility.
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Hi. While I am in sync with your view of running flat correction in Nifty and start of new impulse from 9687, I have one question in my mind. While Nifty did not break the August lows, both sensex and bank nifty made lower lows in September. Further, even now, only Nifty has made a new all time high whereas both sensex and Nifty are yet to make a new high. Is there something more to read than what we are seeing on Nifty charts. Please share your insights. Thanks.
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Hi. How about your post on triangle consolidation. Has that view become invalid.
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