NIFTY50 run it`s way today also by making a new ATH at 10191.90 and fullfil the forecast by some points above my targetzone (10150 area)! This move was accompied by a strong a/d-Ratio at session start (2.97) but after that it was still lagging the rest of the day and closing at 1.77 ( EoD ). Observing the chart we can see, that today´s move is either wave (( iii )) of v of (i) or the top in wave (i) is in place.Today top was set by making some points above the 1.38 FibExt of wave i (blue)! I think we are in wave ((iv)) correction of lesser degree and after it is done we`re making another ATH in the next coming trading hours. If this is the case and we finish this move up we`re ready for a pullback in a wave (ii) of higher degree with targets around the 9955-9880 area, which includes the wave (iv) of one lesser degree.
Closing the gap at 10098 will be a first sign that the advance is done and a reversal has started in a wave (ii) correction!
Analysing other Major Indexes shows that NIFTY200, SENSEX, BankNIFTY etc did not confirm the new ATH at NIFTY50. This is a multi non-confirmation, may often occuring at reversal points?! And USDINR also shows weakness, meaning the decline at this pair isn`t done.
From an EW perspective it occur often, that fresh advances find a reversal point at the price level where a important high has occur, like it was the high in a wave b move at 10178.95 at Sept. 19! Also by observing the option chain for NIFTY50, we can monitor that there huge positions place at 10K-9700. Keep in mind, that the same structure was build just some hours before wave "b" has topped @ 10179.85 and a major reversal took place.
Have a great weekend
Questions and Comments are welcome!
Note!---> This analysis can be wrong. It is just in my view the one with the most probabiltity with the Data which are available to me and by my interpretation of the EW Theory. If you trade this it is done by your own risk and decision! Keep that in Mind!!!!
Data by NSEindia.com and moneycontrol.com!