Nifty50 – Wave IV Unfolding Within the Grand Supercycle

From the Grand Supercycle perspective on the monthly chart, we can observe a consistent pattern — every major a-b-c corrective phase has unfolded as a form of flat correction before the next rally. Based on this historical rhythm, and the current market structure, I believe we are still in the process of completing Wave V of the Grand Supercycle.

This long-term view is overlayed on the chart to help contextualize what’s happening now.

Zooming In – The Weekly Breakdown Within Wave IV and V:
Within this broader Grand Supercycle, the weekly chart captures a five-wave subdivision between Supercycle’s Wave IV and the yet-to-be-completed Wave V.

• Wave III has completed after achieving a 100% projection of Wave I from Wave II, respecting classic Fibonacci symmetry.
  
• After the Wave III high, we’ve entered a correction phase, where sub-wave b is currently unfolding.
  

Flat Correction in Play?
For the current move to qualify as a Flat correction:

• Wave b must retrace at least 90% of Wave a.
  
• This requirement is crucial to maintain the “Flat” identity of the structure.
  

Depending on the nature of the flat:

• If it’s a Regular Flat or Expanding Flat, Wave c must break below the bottom of the rising parallel channel, and end below the low of Wave a.
  
• If it’s a Running Flat, Wave c can stay above Wave a’s low, and price may remain within or near the channel’s lower boundary.
  

Also, as per EW guidelines, Wave c must unfold in 5 waves — which will be the next key structure to monitor.

Where Are We Now?

• As long as Wave b is progressing toward 90% retracement, the near-term bias remains bullish.
  
• But once Wave b completes, the market may enter Wave c, which could result in a deeper correction — either towards the lower end of the channel or even below, depending on which flat structure plays out.
  

What Next?
This unfolding Wave c will likely complete Wave IV within the Grand Supercycle, setting the stage for the final upward move — Wave V of both the internal 5-wave structure and the Grand Supercycle itself.

Disclaimer: This is not a buy or sell recommendation. The analysis shared is purely my personal view for educational purposes only.