My *BIASED* hopeful hypothesis for NIO - Opinions Welcome

2021年2月21日

This is my hopeful outlook on NIO over earnings.

I'm stuck in 3 x $70 03/19 calls, but have accepted I may need to close at a very uncool loss if we break a new low tomorrow.

Hoping recent catalysts (CNBC Fast Money, Barron's report on Korean investment, new factory etc.) can run us up over the next week prior to earnings. Also hoping SPY can put in a few solid days to help us build momentum and give wind behind our sails

Hard to predict what will happen after earnings. If I can get out of my calls at small loss or breakeven before ER I probably will take 2 of my contracts off, and only leave one to ride through Earnings. This is largely because in retrospect I personally oversized my position relative to my account size on this play, and even with expected positive earnings it still doesn't guarantee the stock price will push higher. At this point I just want my money off of the table for the most part

I am not a financial advisor, nor a guru, and I'm still learning, this is purely my hopeful, biased hypothesis.

Would love to hear input from people so please let me know what you think of my analysis, happy to take criticism as it will be something I may be able to learn from.

2021年4月12日

手動結束交易

2022年1月27日

手動結束交易

Funny to see this from a year ago. I was so new to trading and to Options and I had so much to learn and experience. If only I could go back with the knowledge I have now.

Getting murdered on this play became a real downward catalyst for me at the time. I was way oversized and didn't cut when it was a manageable loss. I got trapped in 'hope' and ended up bagholding them to nothing. This set me into a downward cycle of 'revenge trading' where so much of what I had learnt just went out of the window (as did a lot of my money!) My emotion outweighed my risk management and decision making, I wasn't discerning enough with trades, and I was making more mistakes the more money I lost. It took a long time to halt the decline, and it took a (-very-) big toll on my mental health. It crucified my confidence, and I felt a lot of self-loathing for the mistakes I had made

This was an embarrassing trade, but I fully appreciate why TradingView don't let us take these down. It's important to maintain full transparency, and looking back I have no shame. This was the trader I was at the time. Incredibly inexperienced, desperate to succeed but without realising the discipline and knowledge that would require of me. I had to learn by touching the hot iron. 'm proud to not be in the same place now, and I'm certainly not the same trader.

If ever there's a great example for why people should paper trade whilst they learn the ropes (with options especially!) then this is it.

OTM options + ER play + Oversized position + Ignoring stops + Relying on news to move the stock = Complete idiot behaviour

Truly looking forward to posting much better quality trades, ideas and setups in the future. It's humbling for me to look back on this and see how far I've come, (though I know I still have a long way to go)