$NKE Nike, Inc is finally back to CHEAP-ENOUGH levels

2024年7月1日

Many years ago I had drawn this 1.7-1.3 level in the PSR (or Price-to-Sales Ratio) for NKE and the recent smack down for NKE stock has put it within reach of the 1.7-1.3 X Sales zone.

The RETURN for shareholders has been negative for the last 7 years in NKE when adjusted for inflation. The stock is basically unchanged back to 2018 here (not factoring dividends).

What is the point of this?

When a stock gets sold down on bad news, there is an underlying level of value which will support it from that point forward. There are always portfolio managers looking to invest in stocks that have had solid long term fundamentals with rising sales and earnings and a nearly recession-proof business model.

The opposite is also true that there are NO BUYERS for a stock once it gets ridiculously overpriced and no one can justify buying shares are high prices. The only hope you have at that point is for momentum to attract new buyers who aren't paying attention to valuation and because of tax laws that encourage people to hold on for long term capital gains tax rates to kick in for holding periods greater than 1 year.

Thanks to TradingView for providing all of this high quality fundamental information AND for the ability to graph this data so we can visualize and see where the value is in the marketplace.

The value is down here in NKE shares so it is a good time to start buying.

Cheers,

Tim

3:47PM July 1, 2024 76.67 last +1.30 +1.72%

2024年8月10日

註釋

Here we are one month later since the NKE valuation publication and the share price has stabilized and seems to have built a base. I had many questions about how to decide "if" the bottom is in and perhaps NKE could fall to the low end of the range of its historical valuation range.

This is what makes a market. People analyzing and deciding. At the end of the day, we need to figure out what the bigger portfolio managers are going to do and try to do it before them if we are to ride their buying and selling power in the stock market.

Investing is so many different skills all at once, from long term to short term strategies to 'make money' in the market.

With NKE at $74.34 last vs $76.67 on July 1st at my post while the SPX has fallen over 2% over the same time frame. So, net-net it is holding on just fine

2024年8月10日

註釋

Here is the chart with the yellow triangle as my "publication" level

8/10/2024 12:39PM EST Saturday

2024年8月13日

註釋

NKE uptrend daily is in tact and giving a fresh 9-day buy signal today

Tim
10:15AM EST 8/13/2024 76.78 last

2024年8月15日

註釋

NKE moving up sharply pre-open on Pershing Square buying 3 million shares at the end of the June quarter, which was the crash day.



NKE trade up more than 10% from the initial idea here to buy "cheap enough" and the technical buy just 2 days ago.

Tim 9:04AM EST 8/15/2024

2024年8月16日

註釋

Good place to take profits, which is up near the "Key Earnings Level" noted on the chart below.



You can trail stops or just exit half the position. Exit any way you want.

Glad to see a solid risk-reward idea pan out.

Tim
August 16, 2024 11:26AM EST $83.58 last

2024年9月16日

註釋

Nike is trading very normally around key levels, especially reacting to the "EARNINGS LEVEL" as presented here. If you don't use Earnings Levels, this is clearly a great example to show you why should be watching the levels and using them to place exits, entries and to define trend.

Now that NKE pulled back and reacted to the "REBZ (sell puts)" level I posted, which means "Range Expansion Buy Zone", it is showing that Key Levels matter.

Upside target is back to the "Earnings Level" again.

Tim

September 16, 2024 10:00AM EST

2024年9月20日

註釋

Nice rally on the new CEO announcement above and beyond the EARNINGS LEVEL for $NKE.

Ok to bank the profits here.

Tim

$86+ last, Friday 9/20/2024 1:41PM EST

2024年9月20日

註釋

Here is the chart of NKE just now

Tim