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教育

Prediction of the S&P500 and NIkkei based on financials and CPI

INDEX:NKY   日經225指數
In the following content i will explain how you can forecast the market with CPI             ( inflation ) and Financials:

If we look at our figure we can say a few things, i will assume them below:

1. ABN AMRO (a dutch Financial) is highly correlated to the NIKKEI225 index.

2. Since nearly May 2016 we can see that the CPI             ( inflation )-chart has change 5 times. If we look at the Nikkei225 index we can see a few things: when the inflation in the US rose, the Nikkei225 fell 4 out 5 ( a chance of 90% or mathematical: a chance of 0.900). Using maths we know that ABN AMRO has an statistic correlation of 0.70 < r < 0.90 (70% - 90%) to the Nikkei225.
Conclusion: The fInancials are following the NIkkei225, and in turn the Nikkei is following the US CPI             ( inflation ) in a divergence/opposite movement.

3. We can use the inflaton from the US as a staircase for the movement in the S&P500             (on this moment a consolidating market)

Sources: Bloomberg Markets, ING             Technical Analyses
NOTE: I don't make any predictions, making decisions based on my reports is at you'r own risk!
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