Nasdaq on Thin Ice? Smart Money is Bearish!

4月22日

📊 COT Analysis – NASDAQ E-MINI Futures
Asset Managers → Consistently net long, but without accumulation: showing little conviction on new lows.

Leveraged Money → Confirmed aggressive shorts, a clear sign that smart money doesn't believe in the bounce.

✅ COT Conclusion:
Smart money is not buying the dip → fundamental bias = bearish.

🧠 Technical Breakdown + My Long Trade
📉 Structure:

Strong rejection from the 16,700–17,300 zone, with a long weekly wick = signs of accumulation.

Price formed a double bottom + weekly engulfing candle, right on the demand zone → confirming strong buyer pressure.

🎯 My Long Trade (LIVE SETUP):

Entry: After confirmation of bullish price action on the blue demand zone

Target: Supply zone 20,400–21,000

Exit: Closed just before the drop → perfect trade management, respecting structure and weekly resistance

📈 Post-trade context:
Price then rejected violently from that zone → we’re now back around 18,400, and if 18,000 breaks, the door opens toward 16,700.

🧭 What’s Next?
🔹 If price pulls back to 19,200–19,500, I’ll look for a short setup
🔹 If it breaks below 18,000 → clean path toward 16,700–16,500

✅ Trade Summary
🔥 Long from structural demand zone → exit at weekly supply
🧠 Setup based on price action + RSI and structural confluence
🐻 Now the bias shifts back to bearish: watch the 18k level closely

4月25日

交易進行

✅ NASDAQ Long (NQ1!)

Strong recovery from demand and bullish continuation
Risk/Reward: 1:3
COT shows institutional long bias
Retail still fighting the trend (short-biased)
Final TP updated: 22,000