2025 will get going this week or next. The prior Post called U Turn near the Danger Zone with Friday-Monday rally, which may be extended to 1/13 since markets closed on 1/9. Orange TL is danger zone, shaded are U Turn zones and others are just key levels (KL's). 990 hit & Long U Turn to stall out (next dash white or 22,080). Notice 12/18 & 19, we may see that now on way up and if not, reverse it and NAZ will fall in the DZ. 1st white vertical is Friday close and 2nd is January month end. Looking for NAZ to retest 18,655 should it get in and stay in the DZ. We will need to see some drops in the off session Overnight (never happens) and Not see the Friday-Monday Long play. Unless these breakdown look Long (as they are holding up the NAZ). Should these crack we could see some drop moves like 12/18 & 19th and provide the right shoulder to the H/S. BTD, FOMO, GoFed in 2025.
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Since nobody really knows what any index will actually do and (what, when, where), the NAZ may complete the W with the white arrow or the H/S with yellow arrow. Trading's 4 key W's, the keys to it all:
#1, What, what is next move Long or Short? Direction of execution.
#2, When, when to execute the What? This happens prior to the move.
#3, Where, this is the Target of #'s 1 & 2?
#4, Why, this is the least important and does not matter. This is the job of all the media, long only managers such mutual funds and ETF's.
Welcome to the Noise, designed to confuse you and muddy up #'s 1-3. When the noise sources get in sync, its to late. Do not wait for them as they do not understand #'s 1-3 and are only structured as Long Only Products. They could not even trade if they knew all the answers.
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Holiday, Party Free float is over. This week may whipsaw some to set up bigger drop test for next week.註釋
865-70 should be limit high or stop level on short.註釋
Buyers need sellers and Sellers need buyers, Whipsaw in action. Batter Up as NAZ heads back inside the range. Should see some very quick drops to get this going here. 2 way trading is back in 2025.註釋
865 is Fib .618 level form U Turn at Danger Zone. Canadian PM is resigning, Barr is stepping down as Fed vice chair. The Noise makers may use to shake things up. Go Fed. Mot of todays pop was in the O/N, not real but may work as BTD is in play inside F-M Long Play. 註釋
Closing half Short at 21,785註釋
Oh my, 2 way trading is back. Whaaaat, BTD/FOMO's O/N to the rescue.註釋
IDS50 Air Pocket Divergence call from earlier, why I was going and adding Short during the lift. These are reliable signals. The O/N lift and F-M Long move are 2 moves that I would expect to breakdown in 2025. These are starting to show weakness, been running for years. Watch for counter moves over this month.註釋
Like Magic, NAZ is above 2 yellows and at 785 after market close and in O/N Session. Why does this heavily concentrated index primarily only lift in off session period??? What is up, am I the only one who sees this? Sneaky weasel riggers, actually very impressive and best trade going. Just hard to buy into. Long O/N, Short Reg Session continues. 1/9 markets close then back to F-M Long weasel play #2. 註釋
IDS users, use IDS35 (or 50) for next few days as the Push/Pull whip will need to be smoothed out. 27 or below will produce too many false signals. 註釋
Unless the O/N lifts the NAZ, just a totally different (flat) tone. Box Range for sure in Open Drive with selling showing up at some point today. I would be surprised is NAZ gets above ML of box 780-800 range. Short call yesterday was early by 20 points or an hour or so. The Thursday closure does favor a weak decent Long move. Take profit on short should it approach your entry price. You will get another shot.註釋
Open Range with 250 point range, this may be played up/down if 1 way freight train does not arrive.註釋
Long scalp above 420, closing Shorts. Regardless.註釋
Great day and 2 way is back. I had to run out to ER, all good. Timing is a B--ch. Anyway, this may be more drama and theatrics for the potential rally for another retest higher when Thursday (closed) and Friday-Monday Long Play. Stayed above Danger Zone level and should create a slight U Turn for the O/N Long Only Rig Team. Up/Down until next break under Danger Zone or retest. 21,800 Short or continuation Short from Monday's fake rally.
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IDS50, Notice the flow of upward price action vs downward PA. NAZ moves up smoothly (weak & slow, but smooth) over 3 days. Falls reluctantly, jagged, jerky, etc. over 1 day. When shorting you short from white jagged retracement peaks on stall out. Falling PA will usually move in very similar distance on drop and retracement back up.註釋
1/8 Update, NAZ back to 420-440 zone (where I closed shorts). Sideways to upper day today, yellow arrow is range and lines are KL's. Tomorrow the markets are closed so expect all low volume tricks to the upside. This would include a gap higher into Friday. A hit at 240 and hold is Long 1st and break under Super Strong Short. Sellers will need the Buyers (bait). Push/Pull and whipsaw expected today, the Thursday close is only safeguard with selling route. NAZ staying under 350 may turn things very ugly and change the Thursday games. BTD/FOMO Fed Minutes, Dead Zone and AI will have to deliver with some strength today. Orange TL is Danger Zone that has been solid since 10/22. 註釋
Time to get surgical with your indicators. I prefer non time based charts, range or tick. These only print when price changes, unlike time based. Time based do produce noise. 註釋
Notice during drop the LR is no longer lit up. This is a PB or short scalp. Again, similar distance to long move, you get 2 chances on most moves unless we are in fake long 1 way move Up. These only go up with zero 2 way. Notice how NAZ went back to entry. This is the bait (sellers baiting the buyers).註釋
Good luck today, you can see that each day the index will give hundreds of points dual direction. This is useful because the buying and selling is behind each move. No need to wait for breakouts as the sideways PA will always produce more in total points. Trend has not changed here, you know the BTD's will take the next move at 300. 註釋
Just feels like another U Turn. If head fake, that would be very ugly so maybe be careful with the Long side until after the 1st hour today. 註釋
240 pop was 2 hours prior, not 1. Now 1 HR prior is redirecting. Open will be wild as O/N is directionless. 註釋
Current O/N range is very important and is in between the upper Resistance Zone and Lower Support Zone. They only way up is with Tricks connected to tomorrow Closed Session or the Friday-Monday Lift Play. Highly doubt it goes up in today's Reg Session. This will the result in a drop to support zone, that must hold or away we go. The other play is that the Reg Session does not sell off and buys this dip, not typical of Reg Session. 註釋
Anyway, I will be 100% shocked if the Thursday closed session will lead into a Friday-Monday Rally. That would be illegal and I will quit trading. Looking that way and I would hope not as the tricks are getting OLD (but keep working). NAZ needs to drop and retest lower in order for any major lift higher, at this point. Believe they are afraid it will not stop dropping, if so. 註釋
Notice the jerky price action, this is nasty no conviction PA. Last time we saw this near a danger zone, it went up. Not sure that is a guarantee but maybe the opposite warning sign. Feeling like a breakdown. Looks like an EKQ chart, impossible to trade unless playing KL to KL and out. Anything else is gambling.註釋
Just watch the LL/HH on LR Signal. Only way to see it.註釋
Stop at 300, trail it.註釋
stop 400註釋
out for 100註釋
stop at 330註釋
Out -10註釋
stop at 300, looks like U Turn into the no volume long zone O/N.註釋
Did not want to risk Closed gap lower.註釋
Nothing but KL to KL and sideways to the Close. We shall see if Tricks continue.註釋
1/10 Update, NDX chart below will say it all. NAZ at Danger Zone retest, again. Since low of 10/2022, the index is up 111% of which 32% are gains above the 2021 high/2022 open. The drop from 12/16/24 ATH (all-time high) is 6% and will reset the gain back to 24%. Back in August 2024, the index was near flat and has had a decent run up since. The danger zone TL has been holding well, for 2 years. Something to keep an eye on, a break under may revisit the 18,000 level.
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BTD/FOMO Friday, maybe.註釋
Any Long is a scalp until stall out.註釋
This is a Major Edge trade and use a stop if you are playing it註釋
No go but you can expect a Friday pop back in Dead Zone to trade. If not, the NAZ is Toast. 手動結束交易
Have to run and closing Post as we head into the final few hours of the week. Anything under 21,125 should drop back lower or near low of day. I was calling for a drop this week or next, I do thing we continue lower next week and that the NAZ has seen its high for awhile. The NAZ will need O/N Rigging, Dead Zone Lifts and any cheap trick they can pull off. In the Danger Zone now and may retest as high as 21,240 should it get above 120-140. Next big thing would be O/N session that sells big, if not then back up as the selloff will be stabilized in the O/N and Dead Zones. Sellers need buyers, this may get tricky whippy. Go Fed and have a great weekend. 註釋
NAZ in the Danger Zone rejected trying to get back through U Turn Zone #1, sitting on the Edge, KL 990, Fib Level .236. Near hit of TLX 758, will need major O/N Rigging, help and tricks come Monday and prior to turn around Tuesday. 10YN is looking to try 5% yield, not good for any stock index. Long only investment product world has no other play (since long only). I guess they can sell and start a new term called "Sell The Dip". Whipsaw is guaranteed next week as we have 2 way trading back in 2025.免責聲明
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