$NVDA will go below $109 this quarter

2023年1月7日

NVDA

* after two consecutive down weeks, there was a week of consolidation
* Currently 2d-2d-1 on #TheStrat
* I am still bearish on semiconductors; we are still in a bearish channel and I think the rally to 187 (December) was just a failed broadening formation. Institutions wanted to squeeze bears into selling their positions by running it up.
* Now it’s time to run it below 109 (October low)

I'm watching to see if the price will go ABOVE 150.10 this coming week (which would breach last week's high) and THEN have it retrace and fall shortly after that. The drawdown could take several weeks, we'll see.

Maybe a 2d-1-2u-2d, which I think "Stratters" call a "Randy Jackson" ?

2023年1月9日

交易進行

I jumped the gun this morning and bought a Jan13'22 150p ... I paid 3.35 for it, and I'm getting wrecked so far. It's value has been halved in just half an hour. Let's see where it goes from here ... I'm still bearish.

2023年1月17日

交易結束：達到停損點

I let this option expire worthless. I absolutely rushed this trade, and will learn from it.

2023年3月27日

註釋

I keep coming back to this because I was so viciously wrong.

This trade will be my biggest lesson from Q1 2023. The consolidation that happened in the first week of January was a REVERSAL, and my bearish channel blinded me to that possibility.

I was also bearish on the overall market, though SPY as really just churned and NVDA has been an outperformer.

Maybe I should cut myself some slack: I realized I was wrong by late/mid-January (see above) and probably should have just been open to the idea that it now had upward momentum.