5/22/24 - vrockstar - 
NVDA - on many fronts the stock is objectively 'cheap' when considering their 1) lead 2) moat (this includes sofware/ cuda) and 3) growth rate and seemingly unending (for now) backlog. high 30s PE, not bad for one of a kind growing EPS 50% cagr for next few yrs, 20x sales? expensive but put it in cash FCF terms, 2% yield at the low end? defensible.
the rub this q seems to be the anticipation of the new blackwell chips that could hold back ST orders for 2H buys. but let's think this thru... whatever they report won't matter - right? it's about the future/ guide. and 1) a miss gets papered over by this guide and 2) a beat + this higher order backlog ships the stock higher. this is a name that basically won't relent until there's an observable problem or demand issue w/ compute. we're nowhere near that despite what people are saying about "ai being a bubble" - most of these are the same folks that still don't own
BTC and say "i buy blockchain tech, but not bitcoin" and so are typically the lazy types that can't fathom being wrong. make no mistake there WILL be a point to sell your nvda for a better horse. but right now it's the fastest one by a large margin. i own this into print, and will dip buy any miss without a second thought.
it's more about size mgmt into the print, not whether you should own it at all. will eventually post my full val framework in the Q, but think the 1-2y tgt here is probably $2000-$3000k stock. there's a lot of juice left. short-term, i think upside probably limited to the low $1000's. so sub $1000 is a good risk beta.
gl fam, curious on your thoughts
NVDA - on many fronts the stock is objectively 'cheap' when considering their 1) lead 2) moat (this includes sofware/ cuda) and 3) growth rate and seemingly unending (for now) backlog. high 30s PE, not bad for one of a kind growing EPS 50% cagr for next few yrs, 20x sales? expensive but put it in cash FCF terms, 2% yield at the low end? defensible. the rub this q seems to be the anticipation of the new blackwell chips that could hold back ST orders for 2H buys. but let's think this thru... whatever they report won't matter - right? it's about the future/ guide. and 1) a miss gets papered over by this guide and 2) a beat + this higher order backlog ships the stock higher. this is a name that basically won't relent until there's an observable problem or demand issue w/ compute. we're nowhere near that despite what people are saying about "ai being a bubble" - most of these are the same folks that still don't own
BTC and say "i buy blockchain tech, but not bitcoin" and so are typically the lazy types that can't fathom being wrong. make no mistake there WILL be a point to sell your nvda for a better horse. but right now it's the fastest one by a large margin. i own this into print, and will dip buy any miss without a second thought.it's more about size mgmt into the print, not whether you should own it at all. will eventually post my full val framework in the Q, but think the 1-2y tgt here is probably $2000-$3000k stock. there's a lot of juice left. short-term, i think upside probably limited to the low $1000's. so sub $1000 is a good risk beta.
gl fam, curious on your thoughts
註釋
obligatory post here, but not yet worth rehashing the thesis.so you didn't take any of the post pop run after it went +50% and now you're +8%. crazy. don't be greedy guys.
i'm coming in here buying $103/shr and prepared to buy down to the high 80s (which yes, is a possibility, HOWEVER you're getting good value here already).
- do we fill the earnings gap? no clue
- do we rip from here? no clue
- nvda is one of the only stonks that has backlog as far as the eye can see
- it's one of the only stonks that has outperformed both Q's and BTC and has good potential of doing the same
- own. the. best. assets. borrow. against. them. don't. settle. into. cash. for. too. long.
WE ARE CRASHING UP. there will be corrections along the way. this is a gift. just learn to size manage.
NVDA Is now a 5% position for me. I'll take it to 10% in the 90s and 15% in the 80s.
gl fam.
V
手動結束交易
I'll come back to this. Maybe more to go. I was also buying the dip after 
MSFT reported near $100 after hrs last night. I'm closing this out.
Rule 1: don't lose money
Rule 2: see rule 1
Rule 3: don't be greedy.
Enjoy
V
PS - I still own some
TSM, but a fraction of what i bot y day (about 2% position for me rn)註釋
and... i'm back.0 to 3% position this AM near $100.
do we go lower? idk.
But what am i buying this am:
METATSMNVDA... tbd how this day evolves
japan could be a known "unknown" can't look thru catalyst that keeps us on edge for some time. so only buy quality, what you know and STAY SOLVENT.
i might degen on some more SOXL, but let's see ;)
V
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