timwest
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NVIDIA $NVDA Uptrend Is Out of Time

NASDAQ:NVDA   NVIDIA CORPORATION
1235點閱
52
1235 13
Using my handcrafted "Time At Mode" Methodology - I can measure with a reliable consistency and methodology, the amount of accumulation that has occurred in any security on any time frame to determine how much time the security can then trend once the accumulation period is over.

The very logic of this approach came to me in 1988 after I discovered Market Profile from a friend and floor trader on the CBOT (Chicago Board of Trade) who made a living in the soybean             trading pit. I started plotting markets this way and found a remarkable way to monitor markets and trends that has been uniquely powerful since that time.

One of the tenets of my methodology, again which involved making hand-drawn charts in order to find the pattern, involves determining what time frame any market is operating in. What I found is that if there are more than 20 time periods at any one price, that is when the market is telling you that the current time frame is not strong and not in control.

Starting from the low in 2008, I had to go up to the quarterly time frame to fine a time frame that allowed me to stay under 20 time periods across the rally phase through 2014.

What we see is that there are 13 quarters that ends in the year 2013. The first quarter of 2014 marks the blast-off phase of the post-accumulation phase and begins the uptrend and 13-quarter distribution pattern that logically follows a 13-quarter accumulation. The 13th quarter is the current quarter, which means next Friday is the end of this uptrend.

Had you been sharp enough to buy $NVDA at any point in the past 8 years, you could rationally exit your position here at the end of March.

What is your gut reaction to this analysis? How about the logic of the methodology?

Tim

3:25PM EST 3/24/2017 107.01 last $NVDA
評論: Add a label to the chart at the low in the 4th quarter of 2008 = "START TREND" then another label "FIND THE MOST FREQUENT QUARTERLY PRICE". 13 is the most that I can find starting from that low.
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Only 1 like in the last 100 views. That must mean people aren't reading the full text of the chart to understand what I am pointing out.
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lucifer timwest
The fact that we live in a world that values internet contents by the number of views doesn't mean that it reflects any kind of reality :-) Thanx for sharing, very interesting approach!
+1 回覆
2use timwest
@timwest, I read, the charts are not that much of benefit with the explanations you add.
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@2use, Thanks for letting me know. I live in my own head I guess. To me, this all makes sense, but I haven't really explained from start to finish for someone new to the concept or the methodology. So let me make an attempt now. For those who follow all of my charts, and are clued in at the Key Hidden Levels Chat Room, then they get what I am saying. So here it goes.

Basically, a trend UP starts the moment there are 5-bars without a new low. Then, you count the number of bars at one price and if you are above the most frequent price, then the market is in an uptrend. Once you get a "range expansion" bar up from the mode or an "entire bar" above the mode, then you can COUNT the number of bars at the mode and look for a top once that amount of time has expired, starting with the range expansion or the "entire bar above the mode" as bar #1. The fascinating part is that you can get a price projection too by measuring the price range around the bars that touch the mode and add that range to the mode itself to get an upside projection.

Therefore, this "trend identification" method gives specific price targets and time targets. The method works for uptrends and downtrends. There are additional concepts and trading techniques to capture smaller moves within the larger trend, but first it is important to understand the basic tenet of trend which is again: First, downtrend ends with 'no new lows for 5 bars', then uptrend is in effect. Then a mode forms along the way. Then a move away from that mode occurs. Then the trend has "expired" and the only remaining method is to use trailing stops for any long positions using a multitude of techniques.
+7 回覆
timwest timwest
@timwest, And a trend "fails" to be in effect in any time frame once there are more than 20 time periods at one price. Therefore, go UP in time-frame until you can get to an "ideal number of 10" periods at one price. Remember, no more than 20. That just means it is taking too much time, on that time level, to show control of the market. Control requires absorbing enough of the volume in the market to start moving the price. Every stock and commodity has "its own time" that it operates in. This way, we can listen to the market and let the market tell us what time frame it is in and not forcing our analysis onto the market.
+4 回覆
@timwest, "This way, we can listen to the market and let the market tell us what time frame it is in and not forcing our analysis onto the market."

This is of utmost importance.
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2use timwest
@timwest, I suggest you publish a chart (not that there are not any !) with this description (actually, i assume one of the old ones should have this) and use that as a link for any upcoming key hidden levels charts as a reference for the people new to this. I know you always mean well, and i hate to see time being spent redoing things where it can be optimized. Although this concept is new and needs reading (i just recall the amount of questions i asked on your previous charts years ago), best to use your creative mind on being creative rather then repetitive - hope you agree
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2use timwest
@timwest, ALSO I MADE A FOOLISH MISTAKE. i was intending to write "Without your explanations" - that was a complete mistake and i apologize for this. I do read the descriptions, and always because there is always new and relevant information in what you write, never i have seen any useless info there. I wish i could update my comment there
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wien timwest
@timwest, thank you very much for sharing. It's a great insight! May I ask if the method applies only to the monthly chart for quarterly time frame, or it works also on daily chart, etc?
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@wien, This method works on all time frames. The same rules apply. Make a new trend when the current trend fails to make a new high/low for 5 bars.
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