$NVDA: Broadening Formation & Earnings Play – $180 Calls for May

Hey what's up everyone. Here's an analysis on NVDA 👇🏽

💹Trade Analysis & Setup

• NVIDIA (NVDA) is currently trading at $116.66, showing high volatility inside a Broadening Formation (BF) on both the daily and monthly timeframes.
  
• This setup is a textbook liquidity expansion pattern, where price is making higher highs and lower lows within a widening megaphone structure.
  
• The key catalyst in play is NVDA earnings on Feb 21, 2025, which could drive significant price action and IV expansion.
  

🔼 Bullish Case (Targets: $129 - $141.88 - $150+)

• Earnings Catalyst (Feb 21): AI demand remains strong, with NVDA leading the semiconductor market.
  
• Breakout Zone at $123-$125: NVDA must reclaim this zone to shift into an uptrend.
  
• $129 (Prior Weekly High): A breakout here could bring momentum buyers & institutions into play.
  
• Gap Fill to $141.88: Major upside potential exists if NVDA can sustain bullish momentum post-earnings.
  

🔻 Bearish Risks (Key Support & Breakdown Levels)

• Daily Lower BF Break (~$113-$115): If this level fails, downside could accelerate toward $110-$105.
  
• Monthly Broadening Formation Lower Level (~$100-$95): Extreme downside risk in the worst-case scenario.
  
• Earnings Disappointment: If NVDA’s report fails to meet expectations, a strong move down is possible.
  
• Theta Decay Impact: My contract loses value daily (~$3.53 per day), so a slow move up is not favorable.
  
• IV Crush Post-Earnings: If NVDA doesn’t move much after earnings, option value could rapidly drop.
  

🚀 My Trade Plan

• Bullish Breakout Plan: Hold if NVDA reclaims $123-$129, targeting $141-$150+ before March-April.
  
• Earnings Play Strategy: Hold through earnings ONLY IF NVDA builds strength into Feb 21.
  
• Exit if $113 breaks below with strong volume to prevent further downside losses.
  

NVDA’s Daily & Monthly Broadening Formations confirm high volatility & liquidity expansion. The next major move is likely earnings-driven.

If NVDA clears $129, I will hold my calls. If support at $113 fails, I may exit early.

💡 Trade Details:
Position: NVDA $180c 16 MAY 25
Entry Price: $2.60
Current Price: $1.72
P/L Open: (-$85.66) / (-33.8%)
Delta: 11.36 (~0.11)
Theta: (-3.53)
Key Catalyst: Earnings on Feb 21, 2025