6/17/25 - $nxt - What changes? My plan...

6/17/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NXT
What changes? My plan...

- a few TL;DR comments before i copy/paste from a msg i sent a friend, in order to keep things efficient on my end.
- i don't think rushing to BTFD makes sense here (for me)
- my exposure is well-managed (15% 2027 LEAPS at about 1.5x leverage), don't feel compelled to size up or down.

now the thread if it helps frame my mindset/ trading plan...

they trade as a basket, the residential stuff was always unownable even considering "credits" in this environment b/c who is paying to install these things when interest rates are so high, the payback period is >10yr and going to the grocery store burns...
...with that being said, what will likely happen is that a TON of demand (for the utility guys - namely NXT > FSLR > ARRY > SHLS) will get pulled forward this year and next and they're going to produce tons of cash. BUT...
...the market simply cannot care about this right now (it's how the market thinks). while i'm tempted to buy NXT here, i do think we're going to see a move back to that gap from may 25, all else equal - ESPECIALLY - if the market has a sell off (solar will be the weak/ "easy" drop for many funds/ investors given this tough setup).

Therefore, reasoning is v logical. sub $50 "yes". but i'd like to see it go mid $40s even if it's 46/47... before biting. A test of the low $40s is not out of the cards (30% scenario?) and i'd want to make it my biggest LT position again, at that point.

the other name that could/ will make sense to own if/when this all happens (mid 40s NXT etc, macro downdraft etc) would be FSLR back in the $130s, but ideally in the $120s. that company is going absolutely nowhere. and if i may be so bold... solar has already won the game, by 2028 these things will be so efficient, that it will be obvious that installing nuclear vs. solar+battery is just a bad investment. i think we've already crossed that Rubicon and it's part of the reason for taking such dramatic measures to "protect" the legacy and very much DOA non-technology sources of energy.

fwiw - we've seen clear "bottoms" on many solar names in the last pukeathon (end march/april) and then many ripping tops in the last weeks. this sort of clear identification of both bottom/top allows us to use fib lines to get a sense of trading levels IN ADDITION TO (the more important) support/ resistance levels and IN ADDITION TO the gaps left by many. for NXT the second fib level (b/c the first got smashed thru) is about $52 and corresponds to the wicks from may 14 and 22. and the next one is about $49. above the gap from between may 9/10
given how this sector trades, if we see a multi-day move, that gap gets filled and we test the $46 fib level + the gap fill BUT there's some resistance there from prior px action. give the direction + situation... my guess is that also gets broken/ tested, eventually if nothing changes.

so the $42-$44 level is the IDEAL spot to size up. but if we're not looking to get too cute, mid 40s is a good LT spot too ($44-47). anything above that... and i'll just hand sit, probably, avoid the brain damage.

hope that helps!

V