6/28/24 - $nxt - rebuilding position again <$47

6/28/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NXT
rebuilding position again <$47

encourage you to read the long thread i wrote when i took the position back in may around results. the tl;dr is ... in near $40, out near $60 bc had gone too far too fast.

i'm coming back to this in a smaller size ~50 bps near the $47 line. i STILL believe this tape is going to be SUPER brutal for anything that's not mega tech, and especially higher cost of capital industries like solar. HOWEVER, i fundamentally believe solar sits at the beginning of it's decades plus S-curve/ adoption.

and NXT simply has the best IP in the industry. it's the best stock to own and also the most expensive for a good reason.

but 15x for something that
- is the only solar w/o trough results in '24 (growing instead!)
- high quality IP
- opex inflection just mounting and mounting
- good capital stack (no debt issues)
- 400 mm of L12M fcf... on 7 bn of enterprise value gets you still > 5% yield on an asset growing like a weed - a buy

so where's the place you'd load up? probably sub $40 and in the $30s. but having now seen
- how they can just beat and beat and beat
- the stock trades... it WANTS to go higher
- and my view on the biz/ outlook

i'm re-initiating my position here at 50 bps. it's not a trading position, so i'll be adding the lower we go and finding opportunistic spots to add.

my solar pecking order is
NXT > ENPH > SHLS
as you might know i've traded SHLS w/ calls helping support my entry/ and no longer own it

NXT is currently (as of rn) the only solar name in my portfolio and in light of this whack tape, the only one i can justify owning b/c of it's superior quality.

lmk if u agree/ disagree

V