10/10/24 - $nxt - 25% position. LFG.

- today NXT became a 25% position. for me that's huge, i only do this where i've a/ done the work and b/ have conviction in the price i'm paying
- in a market that's nosebleeding daily, could a 10% pullback on the index further wreck names that are on their backs 20%? sure. come on guys, anything possible in this world.
- but do i think that next year's $3.5/shr in EPS is high quality and mostly cash (no stock comp issue, good FCF conversion e.g. net income -> cash flow)... yes
- so say $3 of EPS on a net cash adjusted stock (read- no dilution) of $30 today... 10% cash yields on the only solar name a/ growing this year and b/ poised to further expand int'l in the coming years. attractive.
- again, i think this is a $45/shr stock (minimally) which is 15x that $3 and barely a 1.5x PEG. that's in today's terms. so from $34 to high 20s? max pain mid 20s? par for today's course. the risk/reward from an upside/ downside perspective if moving toward 3-1 in my estimation. i've even been trimming some of my GDLC and BITW (good moves BTW!) to pay for larger $nxt. now *that's* rare... when i sell some BTC to buy something. i'm also maintaining still high cash balance (that allows me to make a big move like today)... so i'm 25% cash still.

be safe out there.

V