potential short setup on NZD/CAD

🧠 Timeframe Sentiment Overview

Weekly (W): Bullish

Daily (D): Bullish

12H, 6H, 4H: Bearish

Bias: Weak bearish retracement inside HTF bullish trend. Caution advised—likely a counter-trend play or short-term pullback trade.

📉 Market Structure Analysis

Bearish BOS recently occurred on 4H with a sharp drop.

Price is now forming a potential lower high at previous support flipped resistance (around 0.82400–0.82550), shown in the red box.

Red arrow forecasts a continuation lower if price respects the short-term supply zone.

📊 EMA Confluence

Price is currently below both the 50 EMA (blue) and 200 EMA (red) → indicates a bearish short-term trend.

EMAs act as dynamic resistance in the supply zone.

🟥 Short Trade Setup

Entry Zone: Pullback into 0.82400–0.82577 (marked supply zone).

Stop Loss: Just above the red zone at ~0.82638.

Take Profit (TP): Weekly AOI at ~0.81680–0.81770, previous demand + liquidity zone.

Risk-Reward Ratio: Approximately 2:1 or better.

🔁 Strategy Notes

Since HTF is bullish (W + D), this is a counter-trend move, so confirmation (e.g. on 1H or 15m) is important.

Text on chart suggests waiting for 1H structure shift before executing the trade for better timing and lower risk.

✅ Confluences Supporting the Short

Clear 4H BOS and bearish momentum.

Bearish EMAs alignment (50 < 200).

Price entering previous support turned resistance.

Weekly AOI (target) is a high-probability demand zone.

Bearish momentum from 12H/6H/4H despite higher TF bullishness.

⚠️ Caution

Since W and D are bullish, price could bounce aggressively from the Weekly AOI.

Monitor LTF reaction closely for exit/reversal.