NZD/USD 4H Timeframe Analysis
Trend Analysis:
On the 4-hour timeframe, NZD/USD is in an uptrend, creating new highs and new lows. The price broke through the previous minor key resistance at 0.56750 and also broke our trendline, which can be considered another minor key level. Following this breakout, the price accumulated a high volume of buyer orders before retracing below the minor key. This move appears to be a liquidity grab—hunting for buyers’ stop losses—and represents a form of market manipulation. The price then retested the minor key level within our trendline.
Price Action Expectation:
After liquidity was formed, the price created a doji candle followed by a bullish engulfing pattern, suggesting that buyers are ready to push the price higher. The price then broke the minor key resistance again. Our objective now is to patiently wait for a retest of the minor key level.
Trade Setup:
Entry: 0.56780 (upon confirmation of the retest)
Stop Loss (SL): 0.56510 (placed below the liquidity zone)
Take Profit (TP): 0.57430 (targeting the next minor key level)
Fundamental Outlook:
The upcoming USD news on the Non-Farm Employment Change is set to report a forecast of 169K, a significant decline from the previous figure of 256K. This lower-than-expected reading could suggest a cooling U.S. labor market, potentially putting downward pressure on the USD. If the data confirms a slowdown in job creation, market participants may adjust their expectations for economic growth and Federal Reserve policy, which could lead to a weaker dollar. However, overall market reactions will depend on additional economic indicators and prevailing risk sentiment, so traders should be prepared for increased volatility.
Conclusion:
The NZD/USD 4-hour analysis reveals that the pair remains in an established uptrend, with recent price action indicating both a liquidity grab and potential accumulation. The formation of a doji followed by a bullish engulfing pattern signals that buyers are preparing to push the price higher. Our technical setup involves a buy entry at 0.56780—after a confirmed retest of the minor key level—with a stop loss at 0.56510 and a target of 0.57430, offering a clear risk/reward profile.
On the fundamental side, the upcoming Non-Farm Employment Change report—forecasted at 169K compared to the previous 256K—could point to a cooling U.S. labor market, potentially weakening the USD and adding volatility to the market.
Overall, while the technical setup looks promising, traders should remain cautious given the potential for increased volatility from the upcoming economic data. Adjust your risk management accordingly as you monitor the market for a confirmed retest before entering the trade.
Trading involves substantial risks and may not be suitable for all investors. Always seek guidance from a financial professional if you’re unsure about trading decisions.
On the 4-hour timeframe, NZD/USD is in an uptrend, creating new highs and new lows. The price broke through the previous minor key resistance at 0.56750 and also broke our trendline, which can be considered another minor key level. Following this breakout, the price accumulated a high volume of buyer orders before retracing below the minor key. This move appears to be a liquidity grab—hunting for buyers’ stop losses—and represents a form of market manipulation. The price then retested the minor key level within our trendline.
Price Action Expectation:
After liquidity was formed, the price created a doji candle followed by a bullish engulfing pattern, suggesting that buyers are ready to push the price higher. The price then broke the minor key resistance again. Our objective now is to patiently wait for a retest of the minor key level.
Trade Setup:
Entry: 0.56780 (upon confirmation of the retest)
Stop Loss (SL): 0.56510 (placed below the liquidity zone)
Take Profit (TP): 0.57430 (targeting the next minor key level)
Fundamental Outlook:
The upcoming USD news on the Non-Farm Employment Change is set to report a forecast of 169K, a significant decline from the previous figure of 256K. This lower-than-expected reading could suggest a cooling U.S. labor market, potentially putting downward pressure on the USD. If the data confirms a slowdown in job creation, market participants may adjust their expectations for economic growth and Federal Reserve policy, which could lead to a weaker dollar. However, overall market reactions will depend on additional economic indicators and prevailing risk sentiment, so traders should be prepared for increased volatility.
Conclusion:
The NZD/USD 4-hour analysis reveals that the pair remains in an established uptrend, with recent price action indicating both a liquidity grab and potential accumulation. The formation of a doji followed by a bullish engulfing pattern signals that buyers are preparing to push the price higher. Our technical setup involves a buy entry at 0.56780—after a confirmed retest of the minor key level—with a stop loss at 0.56510 and a target of 0.57430, offering a clear risk/reward profile.
On the fundamental side, the upcoming Non-Farm Employment Change report—forecasted at 169K compared to the previous 256K—could point to a cooling U.S. labor market, potentially weakening the USD and adding volatility to the market.
Overall, while the technical setup looks promising, traders should remain cautious given the potential for increased volatility from the upcoming economic data. Adjust your risk management accordingly as you monitor the market for a confirmed retest before entering the trade.
Trading involves substantial risks and may not be suitable for all investors. Always seek guidance from a financial professional if you’re unsure about trading decisions.
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