$OXY – Positioning for a Bullish Breakout ?

📊 Technical Overview
OXY has been in a prolonged downtrend, but recent price action is showing a potential structural reversal:

LL to HL / HH shift suggests the downtrend may be bottoming out.

Currently forming a Higher Low (HL) after printing two Higher Highs (HH) – a classic bullish market structure.

Key support held firm around the $34.80–35.00 zone, which aligns with a historically strong demand area.

Target range identified between $55.35–55.55, where previous consolidation occurred.

A sustained move above $45 could confirm a breakout from the current consolidation and open up room to the upside.

💡 Macro Tailwinds
Several economic and geopolitical factors may support a bullish case for OXY:

🔺 Oil Price Stability
WTI crude has been resilient above $70–75, with supply constraints and geopolitical tensions (e.g., Middle East & Russia sanctions) keeping a floor under oil prices.

If oil trends higher (seasonal summer demand + hurricane season), OXY’s revenue outlook improves.

🌍 Global Energy Demand
Global demand for fossil fuels remains elevated, particularly in emerging markets.

While ESG pressures remain, oil & gas continues to be critical in the transition phase.

💰 Warren Buffett Factor
Berkshire Hathaway continues to increase its stake in Occidental, signaling long-term conviction.

Buffett now owns over 28% of OXY, and the market often treats this as a strong vote of confidence.

🏦 Interest Rates & Fed Outlook
As inflation eases, markets are pricing in potential rate cuts in late 2025, which could support capital-intensive sectors like energy.

Lower rates also improve discounted cash flow models, increasing fair value estimates.

🧠 Sentiment & Valuation
OXY remains undervalued vs peers on a forward P/E and EV/EBITDA basis.

With strong free cash flow, OXY is aggressively paying down debt and buying back shares — supportive of long-term price appreciation.

RSI and MACD are neutral – plenty of room for momentum to build.

🎯 Trade Plan
Entry Zone: $42.50–43.50 (Current consolidation area)

Stop Loss: Below $38 (invalidates HL structure)

Target 1: $50

Target 2: $55.50

Target 3 (Stretch): $60+ if oil prices surge

⚠️ Risks
A break below $38 would invalidate the bullish structure.

Oil price weakness due to recession fears or unexpected OPEC policy shifts.

Broader market volatility (Fed, inflation, geopolitical shocks).

🔍 Bottom Line
OXY is showing early signs of a bullish reversal on the chart — supported by strong fundamentals, insider confidence (Buffett), and resilient oil prices. If this HL holds, the setup offers a solid risk-reward opportunity toward previous resistance levels.