Potential Reversal Zone

2020年5月19日

We've been waiting to see the February QQQ gap get filled before looking for a major downside reversal We are now tracking a potential point of confluence setup. If the QQQ's fail to make further gains, and open tomorrow at or below current levels, it will have once again broken the white support line. Essentially a break, and failed attempted to regain it.

It'll also accompanied by a potential fail of the red trendline as well that has seen large pivots to the upside and downside since the Dec 2018 bottom.


Lower highs on the advance/decline line when the market is making higher highs is a massive red flag aswell.

White line is just a hypothetical setup. We'll see if it plays out. Best entry still remains at the channel break and retest I would say. Trying to pick a "top" with the amount of money the fed is throwing at the markets right now, is asking for problems.

***Not Trade Recommendations, always do your own analysis first!**

2020年5月19日

註釋

VIX has not confirmed the move higher either:

Higher lows.....

It's pretty wild to think things are "going back to normal and recovering", meanwhile the VIX is still sitting at 30.

2020年5月19日

註釋

200 dma is 293.59
A close below said level would mean a false break of the key 294 zone and of the 200 dma.....
--The question then becomes...whose turn is it to announce something to pump markets overnight? The fed? Trump? More misguided Covid vaccine news?
--Gonna have to be something to keep things flying...

2020年5月19日

註釋

The perfect storm is brewing.
-AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, are all currently making lower highs from the previous highs prior to the latest dip.

2020年5月19日

註釋

Those three stocks are 30% of the index

2020年5月19日

註釋

VIX on an intra-day view:


Making higher highs as the SPX is making higher lows...

Friday the VIX was crushed, substantially lower highs when the SPX was finding support at 284.5-285:


What happened Monday?
Notice the pattern? It's not full proof...nothing is, but it's a great indicator to utilize for short term and long term swings.

2020年5月20日

註釋

2020年5月20日

註釋

Gapped back above 294 on the SPY today...Which was the initial warning as to why we wait for a breakdown of the channel. It has been the same story for two years now....any time there is critical resistance overhead, or being tested, there is big gap in overnight futures to get above it.



Typically, these channels break after a "failed" move to retest the top or bottom side of the channel...something like this:


That set up is currently not there...

2020年5月21日

註釋

Thursday jobs reports day, has been a day of "celebrating" millions losing their jobs. Even when number miss badly, there hasn't been much selling in open hours trading. It's been perceived as a buying opportunity or a flattish day.

Will there be any change in sentiment today?