7/8/25 - $qs - Pass. No thanks.

6 天前

7/8/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: QS
Pass. No thanks.

- Great story bro, company
- Does this thing continue to ape higher a la meme market? idk idc
- I think pre-revenue stuff can be interesting if there's clear visibility toward scaling revenue or the costs are contained, but let's be real... 4 years post de SPAC and this thing has just ""now"" turned the corner
- maybe.
- i'll give you that. maybe.
- i'm not close to it, i'm going to turn over the battery "rocks" tonight to see if i can find anything more compelling than SES (ironically, the smallest cap battery-related name... usually it's the opposite - the big stuff is more de-risked and obvious)
- so here we have a co that's just doubled it's stonk price on this announcement
- do investors genuinely believe manufacturing is "easy" or this transition to scaling or monetizing the JV w VW will start to justify a nearly $4B enterprise value "easily"?
- here's what i'll give the bulls, especially those coming to the story fresh and without all this: run-rating nearly $400mm in R&D is probably worth something (*throws finger into rear end and then into the air*) in the $400/.2 = $2 bn region (20% is a high benchmark for risky tech, it should be higher but again let's give a lil cred). I tend to like to double this (usually for co's that r revenue-generating and have traction) but let's just throw V's rules out the window and do it here - alas i don't know what i don't know - and perhaps there's something here. So that's $4 bn. So i better have a good idea or alpha to make money at this pt.
- add to this a TON of co's (that shouldn't be public co's) are doing all sorts of whacky jerk fests with banks... ATMs, converts... you name it! scammy banks are going to have a great year! so then i have to believe this co won't do any "proactive" raise. they shouldn't *need* to given nearly $1 bn in cash on the books... but again, tis not like they're going to buy back stock... so even if the risk is low... it's there.

- all in: i'd need a CLEAR catalyst that the co was hitting strides with OEMs, VW was seriously interested in taking this thing out and locking down this game changer tech. and that's just not what i want to have in my book at a 50 bps or 100 bps position *crossing fingers*. i go big. and it's hard for me to understand where i'd get that conviction.

- so i keep my finger on the battery pulse. it's a sector that is probably most exciting to me from an energy-investment perspective over the coming years. there will be some massive winners here. maybe QS is one of those.

- but i'm going to pass.

V

6 天前

註釋

New CEO is too technical (*yawn*), not inspirational which matters for pivot to mfg and execution focus from a research and development (let's be honest "academic") business. He's not a founder. Doesn't speak like an owner. Mercenary. You don't give the reigns to a mercenary unless (the fmr mgmt/ board) are incapable of understanding this. I suspect it true. But idk. Haven't met these guys. They seem cozy in their comms. Not ready to F things up in the industry. Cool, have fun with OPM.
I just don't buy it. Perhaps they'll find some sort of "operational excellence" stride.
Just not at $4 bn valuation with my PnL. Go and make someone else some coin. Not on my PnL...
Good luck all.

V

6 天前

註釋

Okay, one more comment before I just "move on". One for the bulls here.

The CTO (Tim Holme) def'n could be trained to be the CEO.
This is the type of personality I'd want in the public more often.
I "get" this co's future when he explains the chemistry/ the comps... what they're roadmapping etc.

So here's what I'll conclude with tonight on this name:
I am still super uninterested from a valuation perspective in this current tape and given the recent move. Congrats to the bulls, esp those that stacked in the bear. Well earned. Genuinely. But I still think commercializing and getting scale mfg here will be the real challenge. That's always the case with new tech. Always. So while I'll be watching/ monitoring/ etc. and possibly even legging in at some pt (who knows), that's not today or tmr.

V