6/11/24 - vrockstar - 
RBRK - this is defn on a shorter list of "cyber-related" names i keep on the related list. but here's my issue here. it's ambiguous middle of the pack financials and cap. 7 bn and you get 1 bn of revenue next year growing 20% a year and not pro forma profitable. that's just not something the market is paying for.
the wrinkle? don't fade new IPOs into their first EPS. i've gotten burned so many times when i used to short more things b/c as we all know IPOs tend to over value a lot of things initally and set the bar high in the ST to entice buyers. but it's usually always a bar that is beaten bc they can justify spending more juice, or employees have seen this coming and the org is clicking a tinge more in the immediate term. whatever it is - this is not something to fade. the valuation also isn't obscene like
WING where you get a chicken wings company that has tech margins so people put 20x on it. so in that context, 7x is just right down the middle of the road for this type of tech.
i'd be a buyer, but honestly if i told you the price many would probably chime in lol (so maybe i should do that), but it's closer to 5x let's say - which puts this "in the 20s" let's say.
gl to holders. i hope it pops. if we see anything approximating 20% though - i'm going to be taking the other side of the trade for funding and reversion to the mean.
have a good day all
V
RBRK - this is defn on a shorter list of "cyber-related" names i keep on the related list. but here's my issue here. it's ambiguous middle of the pack financials and cap. 7 bn and you get 1 bn of revenue next year growing 20% a year and not pro forma profitable. that's just not something the market is paying for.the wrinkle? don't fade new IPOs into their first EPS. i've gotten burned so many times when i used to short more things b/c as we all know IPOs tend to over value a lot of things initally and set the bar high in the ST to entice buyers. but it's usually always a bar that is beaten bc they can justify spending more juice, or employees have seen this coming and the org is clicking a tinge more in the immediate term. whatever it is - this is not something to fade. the valuation also isn't obscene like
WING where you get a chicken wings company that has tech margins so people put 20x on it. so in that context, 7x is just right down the middle of the road for this type of tech.i'd be a buyer, but honestly if i told you the price many would probably chime in lol (so maybe i should do that), but it's closer to 5x let's say - which puts this "in the 20s" let's say.
gl to holders. i hope it pops. if we see anything approximating 20% though - i'm going to be taking the other side of the trade for funding and reversion to the mean.
have a good day all
V
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