More upside for Rio Tinto pre-earnings?

Recognia is flashing am Elliott Wave 3 extension for Rio Tinto, with a price target of $73.86. I'm skeptical that we'll get that high, because it's outside the current trend channel, which I expect to break after RIO reports earnings on August 1. However, I do think it's likely that there's upside ahead as we approach the half-year earnings date. RIO has a low P/E for the industry and a high rating from all the analysts. In addition to the upcoming earnings date, RIO goes ex-dividend August 8. With a 6.33% dividend, the approaching dividend is a significant upside catalyst for the stock.

However, there's risk of a trend channel breach on June 16, when RIO publishes its quarterly operations review. Last year, RIO broke downward out of its trend channel on June 15, for reasons I don't fully understand.

註釋

I took a close look at the trend channel and realized that it's actually much more elegant than what I charted above: