Reasons for being bearish on sugar for 2025 season with target price of 15 :
1) Head and Shoulders pattern bearish breakout on Raw sugar below 17 on the monthly timeframe. Price is now trading below the lows of 2022 highlighting potential oversupply of sugar for 2025 season.
2) Recent Unica reports suggesting increase in sugar production in centre-south Brazil.
3) Brent oil is trading below 64 as on date which weakens ethanol pricing thereby leading to farmers diverting more cane towards sugar production
4) USDBRL currently at 5.66 and any depreciation leading above 6 will make sugar exports more favorable leading to increase in supply and price correction.
This view will get negated if price reclaims the level of 18.
1) Head and Shoulders pattern bearish breakout on Raw sugar below 17 on the monthly timeframe. Price is now trading below the lows of 2022 highlighting potential oversupply of sugar for 2025 season.
2) Recent Unica reports suggesting increase in sugar production in centre-south Brazil.
3) Brent oil is trading below 64 as on date which weakens ethanol pricing thereby leading to farmers diverting more cane towards sugar production
4) USDBRL currently at 5.66 and any depreciation leading above 6 will make sugar exports more favorable leading to increase in supply and price correction.
This view will get negated if price reclaims the level of 18.
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