7/7/25 - $ses - Still my fav R/R in battery

昨天

7/7/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: SES
Still my fav R/R in battery

- revenue is scaling
- 1Q revenue tripled 4Q last year
- mgmt's speech on last call was "15-25 mm" for 2025
- their software platform is ramping across core (EV/auto) OEMs and basically anyone (tier 1 battery co's)
- if you look at their PnL R&D is 20 mm. that's what they're burning, really. and they will end year w $200 mm in cash
- so when you consider this thing is $100 mm enterprise value...
- revenue is ramping and they're finding PMF and probably one of the most specialized/ interesting tools on mkt for AI-based battery-chemistry discovery
- this thing is dirt chip
- "yes" the sub $1 ticker risks nasdaq compliance
- "yes" lately this has meant reverse split and no-bueno-stock-px-reaction
- but i'd posit here, that any reverse split wouldn't see that death spiral back to $1 mainly b/c of the big cash component, scaling revenue and most co's that do it... do it out of obligation... and their revenue/ cash burn are going the wrong way (this is the oppose)
- while i had to dump EOSE after digging in
- I come back to these guys as perhaps the more interesting software-capital-light-starting-to-reach-inflection-cash-heavy-balance-sheet plays out there for less than a small fries at MCD

what do you think?

V

2 小時前

交易進行

A few things.

First, the more I dig in... the more I like. Still a lot of work to go before I make this a big position. But I'm up from just tip-toe'ing y'day to a 2% of portfolio here. Not insignificant for me to do this with a micro name.

Second, I've been selling some upside (vol) for a few reasons. And if you're buying call options... these might pan out, but the IV is a madhouse. Guys this is a sub $1 stock. THE STOCK ITSELF IS AN OPTION THAT NEVER EXPIRES. So take that into consideration. If you want to say 10x your size so you're renting $1 strikes for 10c... you do you. But c'mon think about just buying fewer shares. You'll sleep better at night.

Third, it's incredible to me how scammy ALL THE OTHER battery co's are. "My wang does this vs. my wang does that". They're all targeting different chemistries, markets, solutions etc. So it's natural there's some competition/ overlap etc. But may remain in early stages. But what's cool about SES is they're offering the TOOLS to get these solutions to market. That's what's so neat (and possibly earning royalties/ on winning tech as they're found - tho I'm not holding my breath and that still seems somewhat hopeful in their comms).

Let's see. I'm trading this in order to have enough size to "care" if it works. Not enough to impale me if it takes longer/ or somehow they don't re-gain compliance w the Nasdaq (which I expect given we're so close, they have big net cash... and are willing to buyback a lot of the float - you do the math - there are methods).

V

PS - I'm also super impressed with how many SES fans there are out there. I didn't get nearly the response on the other battery co's despite their much larger market caps. This is an important part of my mosaic as well. Glad to be here working through this math and thinking w you all.