8/5/24 - $smwb - Long consideration on EPS sub $6

8/5/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: SMWB
Long consideration on EPS sub $6

- seems to earn a good >10% growth, not amazing but solid on top line
- opex inflection already the case, continues to be the case.
- if we extrapolate FCF it should become >10 mm a Q - but let's cut that in half $5 and multiple by 4 Q's and we're at 20 mm. On round up $500 mm capital stack that's 4% and growing 10%... better than cash.
- sub 2x sales, seems too cheap?
- not that $NASDAQ:ZI is a comp, but "kind of" (though i think that co has it's own issues), puts a bit of sour taste in my mouth in a difficult tape to play this thing (or anything really) long at the moment
- the low key way to play (which may be what I opt for) is to buy the dip if/does happen and that's not my base case. But essentially i take the "oops we missed by 2% and the market is going to send us reeling -30% like we've seen so many times lately". trying to avoid one of those.
- google trends (not a great indicator here for B2B) seem solid in a MT context, but weaker in the ST context (i.e. this Q) otherwise i'd be more high conviction.

- let's see how this sets up in tues PM print and go from there.

curious if anyone has anyone knows this stock better/ has a more nuanced POV

V