EW SOL SOLANA

已更新

A EW count on SOL showing the current low as wave ((3)) ended and current move up as a corrective rally (similar to winter 2022 rally, just a larger degree wave)

So far, the technicals have played out very well, not perfectly but good enough to bank great profits on both sides of the trade.
Just a projection, Not Financial Advise.

註釋

questionable on whether SOL has started bearish leg down or still has further upside. Its a great discount from previous highs, trading at ~-50%. I bought some at $13, looking to take some profits and buy MORE SOL.
Current view (bullish) but possibly incorrect, its a count I sort of disagree with but can still favor (for now)

註釋

GREAT reaction off the lows on SOL.
My buy in at just above 13$ was a great choice. I took profits and de-risked 50% on the way up, and my long hit all the targets before the drop started. Tough to favor any counts here, we will have to wait and see. SOL has lot of bullish momentum, reacting off every low in am impulsive manner, favoring further upside with target rang 43$ to 67$ (if BTC can hold). Part of me thinks that SOL wants to decouple from BTC to complete this sequence and take out those pesky shorts, regardless if btc dumps, if just may start moving at its own pace with a 'F*ck Bitcoin" attitude
Looking at SOL like this for now (could be wrong)

註釋

We got the pullback we were waiting on, as shown directly above this post. It take much longer and tbh went even deeper than what I was anticipating.
New leg up may have started, we'll have to paitently observe (its still a BEAR market, for now).

註釋

just a projection based on current move up off the recent low.

註釋

Bearish scenario to consider (we're not out the water just yet, protect your capital)

註釋

BULLISH COUNT scenario to consider
a 1,2-1,2 setup?

Time will tell

註釋

Keep an eye on SOL.D

註釋

ABSOLUTE BEAUTY
Take profits, secure capital!!

註釋

local top is close
good idea is to take some profits
we'll look for buying opportunities on next big pullback, SOL should * hold above 30$ until market is ready to start a new bear leg

註釋

SPECTACTULAR
blew right through our targets (except the final 1.618 extension)

註釋

Just a note to take. We used the second high (white arrow) instead of the peak (green arrow) for our fib retracement levels for a few different reasons:
#1) modesty. at <$10, a year ago 60$ seemed unreasonable.
#2) tops are tricky, can be multiple different counts ei ABC- (ABC), ABC1-2, AB-1,2, etc. I figured using a mdest approach would get use closer to target range to bank profits.
This is the true fib retracement which I used in many of the charts above

註釋

Don't forget to take profits.
Remember, 63$ to $104 is less than a 2x, but $40 to $90 is more than a 2x.
Focus on profits, whatever moon bags you wanna keep before market turns bloody, keep it as a risk free moon bag ei if u bought at 30$ and sell 50% at 60$, you returned your capital and your SOL coins would be risk free
NFA, just a pov that may help.

註釋

still going
3's are tough to call its top.
3 is the $

註釋

take caution
take profits
and ending is close
sure, still has room for upside
at 60$, a 2x would be 120$, its unlikely to get there here and now, not without a proper correction. its overbought and running out of momentum
bearish divergence building up
wave 3 momentum fading, targets well acheived. 9$ to $68 in 1 year is making a strong statement successfully.
DONT BE GREEDY
remember, what goes up must come down
calculate the risk to reward scenario

註釋

SOL.DOM
sitting right at upper resistance line

註釋

(Potential) Head and Shoulder pattern developing
we're favoring current high as wave 3 and still some upside after wave 4 pullback
(could be wrong, can be topped out right here so we're gunna use caution buying the pullback)
Bearish divergence supporting the pullback
48-38 range is a reasonable area for SOL to pullback and find support in the short term. Whether continues to print another high (wave 5) is yet to be seen, but upside can be favored as limited.
Retest of previous breakout and support level as target range

註釋

Market gives opportunities to buy the dip.
If you can't get the precise area, its ok, just paitently wait a couple days and place orders just bit above the low, it's also good to spread the orders out around that area including lower incase it drops lower to fill your order. That way your order and investment has an average cost (DCA) instead of a 1 shot entry.
never throw all your eggs in same basket.
MY strategy here will be a short term play. Favoring to do some trading around that 48-44 area before buying a bigger bag (will look for daily doji candles at the lows). I do believe SOL could dip below 40 but we'll see how she prints.
This could take few days or cpl weeks so be patient, or you can do some active intra-day trading bewtween the bounces

註釋

Ill be looking to buy around that low $40 area and offload 25%-50% around that $60-$68 area to secure my capital. I don't believe SOL will get past $100 in this move up (wave 5). Hopefully I will be wrong!

註釋

Bear flag in play as well

註釋

Favorable outcome (with bias)

註釋

Wave 3 structure

註釋

wave 2 vs wave 4
typically mimics size (%) but contrast in structure and time

註釋

LOCAL Bottoms and Tops by the # of days

註釋

reakouts for next move up usually take at least few days off the low so no need to rush to buy the low. Canjust wait few days and buy in slightly higher than the low, theres always a retest of the low where support was found

註釋

Wave 4 typically retraces 0.236 - 0.382 the move from start of its wave 1. Wave 4 shall NOT exceed past 0.5 fib otherwise the count is invalidated.

註釋

H&S mostly likely to fail here

if pokes above left shoulder peak; consider it invalididated and any move down to support would most probably be a bear trap setup to push higher.
wave 3 can still be in play, or perhaps wave 5 being completed.

Risk to Reward; upside potential is limited here

註釋

Wykoff Distribution can be see clearly, has upside, could take a while weeks months, your best bet is to take profits or trail stop. Highly unlikely that SOL will break below 40$ anytime soon
school.stockcharts.com/lib/exe/fetch.php?media=market_analysis:the_wyckoff_method:wyckoffdistribution1.png
school.stockcharts.com/lib/exe/fetch.php?media=market_analysis:the_wyckoff_method:wyckoffdistribution2.png

註釋

3-4-5, (3)-(4)-(5) ending is where retail FOMO shows up and Euphoria starts spreading. That's when the ones who were very quiet at the lows show up to gloat and dismiss the excellent work we done patiently waiting and calculating to try beat the market by securing profits. If you secured profits, you are a winner. Doesnt matter how much higher it goes. Those profits is what you'll use to re-invest when markets provide huge discounts. If you secured profits, congratz. Now lets roll over to other assets to do the same, over and over

註釋

SOL has had a phenomenal year and taking profits is a no brainer at these highs.
Some consolidation and limited upside is whats next from my view before completing sequence. Sooner or later, anticipate a major dump. For now, some quick fast trading opportunities should present itself in this consolidation phase if thats whats started

The bearish wave 4 count will most likely get invalidated, but for now we'll keep it. Once it extends beyond 0.5 fib, we can favor the move up as new bullish leg of wave 1 (retest of 2022 low will be most likely our wave 2 correction)