SP500 Secondary Trend. Bowl + handle. Resistance zone. 11 2023

Logarithm. Large timeframe 1 week. On the chart a big bowl, you can say already with a handle, the price is testing the resistance of the previous market highs for the 3rd time (entering this zone). Breaking through it, this resistance will become a very strong support during the pumping (probability no more).

Simplifying the complex is the key to success.
Complicating the simple is a guarantee for your own confusion and mistakes on the plain.
It is based on knowledge and experience, which always leads to simplification of actions, not to complication !!!!

The SP500 index (500 companies of the global hegemon) is a reflection of the "health of the US economy" and, conventionally speaking, of all markets in the world. It is needed more as an indicator of the direction of other markets, including cryptocurrency (the market is maturing), than for trading as such.

The SP500 index (500 companies of the global hegemon) is a reflection of the "health of the US economy" and, conventionally speaking, of all markets in the world. It is needed more as an indicator of the direction of other markets, including cryptocurrency (the market is maturing), than for trading as such.

1️⃣ The increase in % rates will stop closer to the US presidential election, which is logical.

2️⃣ Before elections, the ruling party always shows the people the positive in its work for the people, even if there is none, i.e. injects money into the economy.

3️⃣ Handing out "free money" to potential voters before elections. Who will take it to the stock and cryptocurrency markets.

4️⃣ Changing the bear market cycle to a conventionally bullish one in 2024 and a bullish one in 2025.

5️⃣ Overcoming previous all-time highs, this is the third time we have tested this resistance of the SP500 index.

In other words, everything is as always. Before the elections, “everyone is good” and is pushing the economy up. USA together with the Fed. Only the so-called “black swan” can influence this, whether it is real (there are no such things) or staged, it doesn’t really matter. But, this is all a hypothetical probability, nothing more, which must always be kept in mind. Therefore, when the market rises, protect your profits with stop losses or hedge with correlated positions. As a rule, nothing happens, and if it does, the event itself is always inflated by the media and bloggers tens of times in importance, thereby creating the illusion of fear. Don't fall for such tricks, either.

The present, and especially the future, is not always a projection of a repetition of the past. It may be conditionally the same, but the details are radically different. This must always be remembered.

On linear, it looks like this:

The main trend of the index More than 100 years for clarity. Publication 11/22/2022

SP500 index. The whole trend. Anniversary 100 years

SP500 индекс. Весь тренд. Юбилей 100 лет

Vertical growth by +372% (madness, super pump)
Before the super collapse of the “Great Depression” Publication 11/22/2022
SP500 index. Pumping before the "Great Depression" Code 372-69

SP500 индекс. Накачка перед "Великой депрессией" Код 372-69

The game controls the people, not the people the game. The concept of a lot is always replaced by a little, a little more, until all their expectations “burst” from greed. This encourages some to become wiser, some, on the contrary, the closer the abyss, the cuter the devils.

註釋

Play the game, but don't believe in it.

交易結束：目標達成

from the breakout of resistance 4630 price reached the zone of level 4800, now at the moment 5.18% from the breakout of resistance of the big bowl, the "bowl with a handle" is realized. The price is at the resistance of the dynamic meridian (dotted line). There have always been pullbacks from it for a year and a half (this is the resistance of the ascending channel). If it happens again, the first stop of the decline is 4630 (very strong mirror support zone).

If price consolidates above this dotted line of resistance - there will be a significant bullish boost to the markets. Globally, the markets will be pulling significantly higher and it doesn't matter much what happens locally....

交易進行

交易結束：目標達成

from the breakdown of the key resistance of the big bowl 4630$ the price is growing in the uptrend of 108 days. Almost reached the target of the “bowl with handle” formation, 5327.77$ (15.07%). We are approaching a significant resistance zone in the medium term work and “turbulence”). Then already to new zones of highs with high probability.

It is very much for such a liquid instrument, which displays the whole economy of the main country of the world represented by the USA, and as a projection of influence — world markets.

Now the price is 5264. A phenomenal +13.69% in 108 days. That's for sure.

註釋

On an old chart history for 100 years, look at when something like this happened (price rise in 3.6 months 108 days, more than +13%) and what happened during a notional year, and then what...

註釋

02 05 2024 From the 5264.24 zone (resistance level zone 5327.77 (hidden 327/777) highlighted in yellow, recall BTC 73,777 high) reversal, when similar speculative-humor values +13.69 (from support reversal zone 4630 highlighted in yellow reversal) are reached.

Note that this time zone 8 04 2024 - 317 and percentages +15.07 (code 69777) in the time zone were shown when the idea was published, that is, almost half a year 24 11 2023.

At the moment there is a localized decline. Potential reversal zones and key local support/resistance levels have been shown, as well as time zones where there may be a local reaction in potential (probability no more). While the decline is going on.

Remember Mr. Traders, the US stock market (SP500 as a projection) is the "daddy of bitcoin". The lesser repeats the greater, but not vice versa. With very rare local exceptions.

註釋

After 18-day correction realization of the pattern "dragon". Now the price is again at the resistance 5327.77. On the time frame of 4 hours, the ascending triangle is realized under this resistance. It is very likely that this resistance will be broken, and new tops will be reached. Especially when more than a trillion USD will be injected into the market - “stupid money”, i.e. just distributed to everyone during the election race in the USA.

交易結束：目標達成

After the local correction, we reached the second key price zone exactly at 5640.14, which was the estimated % from the reversal zone of the breakout of the large bowl +21.61%. The profit on the index is a very large % for such a time. Remember, in a month and a half there will be elections for the US President, or 44 presidents to replace them.

If we do not hold the local zone (the more important median of the trend direction channel), then there is a potential for the formation of a local double top.

Key local dates before the elections, which can locally affect the markets:

September 17-18
September 26

註釋

Just for the sake of clarity for the future. Dumps of the last decade of the ever-rising trend of the American economy over the last century in comparison with absolutely any economy in the world.

交易結束：目標達成

18 10 2024

from a local reversal (previous update) the price has grown by +5.09% at the moment. Almost reached the "level" of 5927.12 (currently 5889.70). The price is moving in a local ascending channel with waves conditionally 105 days each.

There are 18 days left until the elections of the next president.

From the key reversal zone of the secondary trend (to new pre-election peaks), the price has grown by +28.02%. For the index in such a time, this is a lot. The bullish median of the ascending channel (highlighted by a bright green dotted line) of a large scale (secondary trend) will be about $6100, depending on the time of reaching. There is a high probability of a rollback from it (a low probability of a breakout with a stick).

By the way, Bitcoin is growing (driver) precisely for the stock market as a whole at the moment. Almost conditionally 100% correlation. Now (soon) the key time zone.

Now is October 18.