SPX - WhoFookinKnows!

已更新

BLUF: Put/Call Ratio is Highest in a while…VIX is High…10 YR Yield broke 1.50% and USD keeps Rising…TLT will be the benefactor! Markets march higher or pullback...there is only one game in town folks for "FookinGlobalMoney"...MAGA country...thats the wrench in the entire puzzle and its the linchpin...What I know and think isn't worth one subway token! Let's watch the ShitShow, raise cash, take advantage of the buy opportunity and use a Process while "Managing" your trade(s)...Cheers, do not give up the "High-Ground!" Shoot-Move-Communicate!

HEAD SHOTs ONLY!

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The S&P 500 is still up 3.3% year-to-date and hasn’t hit it’s 50-DMA since October of 2019. ,20-DMA =3,323
* 50-DMA = 3,279
* 100-DMA = 3,159
* 200-DMA = 3,041
* Math says…S&P 500 is 3,337-3,041 = 296 points to achieve the 200-DMA. The S&P 500 would decline almost 10% from peak to trough if it achieves the 200-DMA in the coming weeks or months.

The bottom line for this past trading week is pretty simple; U.S. equities had become overbought/extended, peaked over the fence and saw several troubling signs in fixed income and currency markets and started to retreat.

JPMORGAN: The “greatest threat” to bonds/equities? “Fed success in achieving its inflation overshoot.. [but] history is against this risk scenario developing quickly given that realized inflation has been undershooting consensus expectations for most of the past 15 years ..”

Fund Flows are rebalancing toward defensive & safety…The last 4 times the yield curve inverted, the market rallied for another two years, surging 40% on average. Assuming such a two-year lag from the August inversion before a downturn, the stock market could rise steadily into early next year. Based on the 2yr-10yr yield curve inversion in late August of 2019 and if history does prove relevant in this regard, we might not see a recession until November of 2020, if at all. The dynamics of the current economic cycle don’t match those of its predecessors, for the betterment of the economic cycle. It’s one of the reasons this expansion cycle has proven the longest in history and still going…

—Seth Golden at Finom Group (finomgroup.com)…”Weathering the Storm”

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blog.yardeni.com/2020/02/powell-says-economy-is-in-very-good.html

Powell Says Economy Is ‘In a Very Good Place.’ Time To Worry?

Razor-Focus-Situational-Awareness
Extrapolate Out the BullShit
Assess the Environment We are In
Digress toward Adaptable/Flexible Strategies

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Radigan Carter on twitter and online...Great Insight.

radigancarter.com/

twitter.com/radigancarter

Example
THREAD 21FEB20 - VERDAD'S CRISIS INVESTING: MAXIMIZE RETURNS DURING PANIC

1/ Notes on@verdadcap's Crisis Investing: How to Maximize Return During Panics First heard Dan speak on RealVision and very impressed.

mcusercontent.com/6dc62f307511d466ff78a94fe/files/b12058f7-afbd-4078-8604-52c9cbc1b592/Crisis_Investing_Verdad_Advisers_Ebook.01.pdf

2/ Overarching theme: Have cash on hand to invest during crises after high yield spreads hit 6.5% for 3 months. Investments made in small cap value equity with usually free cash flow, and CCC bonds that offer attractive extra yield for risk in the environment.

3/ What is high yield spread? The difference between the borrowing rate for a smaller, less-creditworthy business and the corresponding safe interest rate (US Treasuries). Verdad uses the BAML US High Yield Master II to measure the difference.

continued at website...

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Seth Golden
sethcl
·
1h
This is not the report you want to miss. Subscribe to unlock our latest #Market report. #Coronavirus fallout, risk/reward improves, fund flows foreshadowing, economic risks, technicals and more!

Is A Storm About To Hit Markets? Have an Umbrella? - Finom Group
If you were asked to do nothing as an investor for the week to come, could you do it? Sometimes the simplest and most appropriate measure to take is the most difficult for investors and traders...
finomgroup.com

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