SPX500 20 Mar 25 Market Analysis

• Previously, we said that traders would see if the bulls could create a strong retest of Mar 17 high followed by a breakout above, if the retest lacks follow-through buying, stalling around or below (Mar 17) high area?
  

• The market retested the Mar 17 high yesterday, closing above the middle of its range and closed as a bull bar with a long tail above.
  

• The bulls want the market to form a 2 legged sideways to up pullback. It is currently underway.
  
• They need to create credible buying pressure - consecutive bull bars closing near their highs.
  
• Traders will see if they can continue to create follow-through buying.
  
• The next target for the bulls are the 20-day EMA or the January 13 low.
  
• For today, the bulls want a retest of yesterday's (Mar 19) high followed by another leg up.
  

• The bears see any pullback as minor. They expect at least a small second leg sideways to down to retest the Mar 13 low after the pullback phase.
  
• The 9-bar bear microchannel on the daily chart and the 4-bar bear microchannel on the weekly chart increases the odds that the first pullback (current pullback) would be minor and not lead to a reversal up.
  

• Because of the climactic selloff and parabolic wedge, the market may try to form a minor pullback. The pullback phase is currently underway.
  
• Traders will see the strength of the pullback. If it is strong (consecutive bull bars closing near their highs), they may look for a retest of the breakout point - Jan 13 low.
  
• If the pullback lacks follow-through buying (overlapping candlesticks, doji bars, bear bars, long tails above bars), the odds of another leg down AFTER the pullback phase increases.
  
• For now, traders will see if the bulls can create a strong retest of yesterday's (Mar 19) high followed by a breakout above.
  
• Or will the retest lacks follow-through buying, stalling around or slightly above yesterday's high area?
  
• I will update the post again later today.