SPX LT View May 2018

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Following the path

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There is an OPEC meeting this week. There is a probability that a decision could be taken to drive oil prices higher which should support SPX. Retest if the highs possible then

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Transports iffy...

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Retesting the highs will squeeze the vast majority of people..markets tend to do that regularly. Lets see

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2 gaps above 2800s, FED meeting/ECB meeting. Crunch time into June 20..

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Crunch time coming next few sessions. The most pain for all is closing the gaps and reversing next few sessions..

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Still marginal higher high possible but not necessary... Quarter end next week and then 4 JUly

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Month/quarter end this week. From next week, QT rises to 40bn per month and combined FED+ECB will be negative liquidity for the first time. Also 2H we should be traversing into US growth slowdown. In other words all parts are should be in place for a 2nd leg down

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1Q2018 GDP confirmed at 2.8% YOY. So this week we are completing 2Q and will be interesting to see whether US can muster 8 consecutive Q of whatever marginal acceleration in GDP to make it a record streak that has never happened before. MAGA awaits