Historical data suggests that S&P500 is not cheap or fairly valued. Even though S&P500 is slipping from the record high, based on historical data stocks seem to be highly valued.
looking at the channel depicted on the S&P500 chart since 1940, upper channel line implies that stocks are highly valued while channel's middle line suggests that price is fairly valued. If stocks are to be fairly valued, S&P500 has to trades between 3300 and 3000. That means stocks has to fall more than 30% from record high. If S&P500 falls below 3000 mark or lower toward 2000, history suggests that stocks are undervalued.
looking at the channel depicted on the S&P500 chart since 1940, upper channel line implies that stocks are highly valued while channel's middle line suggests that price is fairly valued. If stocks are to be fairly valued, S&P500 has to trades between 3300 and 3000. That means stocks has to fall more than 30% from record high. If S&P500 falls below 3000 mark or lower toward 2000, history suggests that stocks are undervalued.
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