S&P 500: When does the next sustainable rally begin?

The S&P 500 remains on target for 5000-5200 despite a bumpy road ahead. A retest of the late-January low is likely.

The black and red scenarios blueprint the most likely paths. Black shows an ending diagonal, which led to the January correction. Subsequently, a zig-zag pattern completed a fourth wave. The black scenario implies that the late January low holds during the next few weeks. A retest would bounce off the 4290 S/R and lead the S&P 500 in a volatile market higher into Q2/2022.

Red shows that the S&P 500 traces an irregular flat correction with more room on the downside. It will break towards 4000 before the next rally begins. The red scenario is less likely unless we witness a drop towards 4300 with increasing momentum and breadth.

The best-case scenario for bulls is not charted today. However, any print above 4595.5 during the next few trading days transform the rally from late January into a bullish impulse. Odds increase significantly, in that case, that the January low won't break down during the next few weeks.

The bottom line is that the S&P 500 is on target for 5000-5200, but the question remains: When does the next sustainable rally begin?