So who is in the market now? The old quiet crowd, the ones that are willing to hold on for a long time.... the one with a big paper loss perhaps that will not sell so the paper loss does not get money loss.... Yes we are going up and down like a yo-yo but thats Goldman Sacks and Bank of America and Citibank proprieteray trading gallore... not you and me.... (we simply don't have that volume- we individual investors).
So my take is as long the red line holds (it will, because there is no one else left to sell -with brains that is) and we will advance to 3200 by years end. Unfortunately the sell in May and go away time comes nearer and we will move sideways. So I would expect more or less the same until September and then we will march higher with more resolve and decisiveness.
I need to mention one more thing. If you have ever read a mutual fund brochure, the managers are REQUIRED to be in stocks , not in cash. That's why they get paid!! So sooner or later the big boys will have to get in the game -they can sit in the sidelines only for so long (unlike you and me that is :) ).
Enjoy your summer people, don't sweat it and happy trades.