SPX - temporary reprieve but still short

2020年2月29日

Expecting reversion to the mean to begin soon.
Likely will retest the 200d MA -- maybe back to 3065 or 3125.
With fear still in play, we'll break below 3025 again with a target of 2700.
Expecting more uncertainty, fear, and concern over the Coronavirus to drive the market lower.

2020年3月1日

註釋

[to further explain chart] Since we are extended, we will revert back to the mean. Friday's candlestick is likely a Hammer (bullish signal) if the next day is up. So, looking at the 200MA (dark blue line) as our magnet and 0.618 and 0.5 as resistance. Look at the pink up arrow pointing into red circle (as target). However, I'm not going long. I'm expecting to short the market again when I get a trigger. I'm cautious on the re-entry though since I think we could go to ~3120 (0.5 extension and the 2/25, 2/26 lows).