Update on the S&P Shiller PE Ratio

2018年12月30日

Just to update.

Will link to other posts.

PE ratio has now dropped 18% since January. Will do an EW count and post that too.

2019年1月10日

註釋

PE ratio Jan 2019 28.61... still dropping

2019年1月11日

註釋

2019年1月11日

註釋

2019年1月20日

註釋

PE ratio rose to 29.36 over the past week or so from 28.41 on January the 1st.

2019年2月24日

註釋

Today PE on Friday 22nd up to 30.56. This is a bear rally and I wouldn't expect to see a higher high.

2020年3月18日

註釋

Turns out, if you had exited the equity markets when the Shiller PE ratio went down 10% - as is shown above - it actually would have been a good time to enter bonds (with yields above 2% - so recent and yet so far in our memory now). Gains in t-billd bought then would have more than made up for missing out of the upside post late 2018 bear market. Unfortunately, I didn't take my own advice and went into emerging market bonds instead :) Their returns remain strong but the local currency is down 12% vs the USD in a month. Oh noes