Cup and Handle Complete?

2022年10月17日

About and week and a half ago, I published an idea saying that we could be forming a cup and handle pattern. Jobs report came out October 7th and we gapped down. To be honest, I was still expecting a little more upside to about 3850 or just base at 3800 for a couple more days to complete the cup and handle pattern I was looking for. So that gap down wasn't ideal for the cup and handle pattern. CPI report came out Oct 13th and it got ugly at the open finishing off the day with the most impressive day not seen in about 40 years. Many think, that was the end of the Bear market. And look, yes that was a Bullish reversal candle, but it didn't sell me enough because it brought us right back to the very weak 3600 area. Friday, October 14th, was going to tell if that rally we had on Thursday was real. We gapped up and gave back almost half from Thursday gains. We have to remind ourselves that in bear markets, you're going to get aggressive rally's. I'm still expecting the VIX to get to 40 and possibly even get to 50. That would be the pivot point for me, then, I would expect a multi day rally and get bullish. When will this happen? Not sure. But I anticipate by the end of the month we arrive to 3400. Maybe even 3200, days before the mid terms. The selling could continue for a couple more weeks I think. Only time will tell. Remember, don't predict, react. Mange risk and be patient for the right entries.

2022年10月17日

註釋

I wasn't convinced by the Bull's today. If we break out of the 3700 level, then I will look to get more Bullish. But after today, we need to see what tomorrow brings. After watching the action today, I have a feeling we continue lower. Are we going to drop fast? Will we get to 3400-3300 little by little? Or this could have been it and we head higher. Either way, have a plan and always think of the possible outcomes. Let's see what happens tomorrow.